Week 17 is shaping up to be HUGE. So many playoff clinching scenarios. If you haven't checked it out yet, look at my blog that goes through all of them. Let's look at these games very closely.
Carolina @ Atlanta
- The last time these two teams met, Carolina squashed them 34-10. The Falcons are the worst rushing team in Football and the worst in opponent 3rd down conversion%. And when it's 3rd down and the play breaks down, Cam will use his legs to pick up the first and the Falcons won't be able to stop him. The Falcons offense has been average all season, struggling to consistently produce offense, averaging 22.2 points per game down by 4 points from last season. The Panthers have the #2 ranked rush defense in the league, and the Falcons already have the worst running game in the league. Carolina's defense has been remarkable at rushing the passer, getting pressure, designing coverages, and good open field tackling. The Falcons still are a good Home team, but Carolina is playing miles better. Even if Cam doesn't utilize his running, he's got a laser arm and fit the balls into tight windows.
- The Falcons defense won't be able to stop the Panthers offense, and the Panthers defense will contain the Falcons offense. Tough to say if Atlanta gets blown out again. Probably not in the last game of a disappointing season in front of their Home fans. But I don't see Carolina losing this game, despite Cam being 0-2 in Atlanta. The Panthers have a chance to get the #1 seed with losses by San Fran and Seattle, and a chance to win the South and get a #2 seed with a loss from New Orleans. Carolina's got a lot to play for and their team is good enough to pull off a win.
Prediction: Panthers defeat Falcons
Baltimore @ Cincinnati
- The Bengals are Undefeated at Home for a reason. The Bengals do have something to play for as they still have a chance to get the #2 seed and get a first round bye. At Home, the Bengals are averaging 2.6 turnovers per game, tied with Seattle for the best red zone defense, and 2nd in the league in points per game at Home at 34.4 right behind Denver. That's what they do at Home, they score points, and force turnovers that lead to TD's most of the time. Dalton has been fantastic at Home throwing 19 TD's to 4 INT's and managing that offense.
- The Ravens already beat Cincinnati this season in OT. Flacco is playing with a knee brace which hindered his performance greatly against New England. The Bengals defense has been playing well even without Geno Atkins out there and are fantastic at putting pressure on the QB and disrupting their rhythm. The Ravens are not a great running Football team. They've only been averaging a little over 80 yards per game, while the Bengals are allowing 97.4 yards at Home. Then again, Baltimore is only running the ball 40% of the time. So, Flacco will have to get it going with his arm, find his big play receivers down the field and be aggressive with Cincinnati.
- In their last 4 meetings in Cincinnati, the Bengals are 3-1. The Ravens can't run very well, and the Bengals defense is just too strong at Home. Only way the Ravens win is if their defense shows up and contains that offense, but at Home, I don't see the Bengals losing.
Prediction: Bengals defeat Ravens
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis
- The Colts still have an opportunity to get the #2 seed with a loss by New England and Cincinnati. Something tells me they'll get it here with ease. The Colts have found their offense over the last few games. Donald Brown is back to running the ball well, Griff Whalen and Lavon Brazil have made their presence felt among the offense and are finally being implicated more into the game plan and the Colts will these young guys to have this kind of production in the playoffs. They pick up great yards after the catch and both men are averaging over 10 yards per reception. But Da'rick Rogers will be needed to line up aside Hilton as a sure deep threat. The Colts offense got it rolling against Kansas City controlling the clock and putting up 367 yards of offense on Kansas City.
- While the Jags offense has gradually gotten better at running the ball, their passing attack is still average, and somewhat mediocre. The Jags are giving up too many yards through the air and on the ground. Besides, the Colts already smashed this team in Jacksonville 37-3. I assume the Jags will play them tough, but this season, Indianapolis has become a difficult place to play. That crowd, the defensive energy of that Colts team is too much for most teams to handle. I'll take the Colts as they sweep the whole AFC South this season. On a personal note, I hope my team gets this #2 seed. The Colts will do their part, but they'll need some help.
Prediction: Colts defeat Jaguars
NY Jets @ Miami
- The Dolphins need to win and have Baltimore lose to get into the postseason. The Dolphins were blanked by Buffalo last week and the Bills defense even knocked Tannehill out of the game. The last time Miami played the Jets, they blew them out by 20 points. The Miami defense matches up well with the Jets receivers, even though the Jets receivers lack consistency. Geno has been playing with little to no receiver help outside of Santonio Holmes, and on some occasions, Jeremy Kerley. Other than that, it's hard for Geno to produce with no consistent weapons. The Jets pass rush is still relentless and have the best rush defense in the AFC. They'll be able to contain Miami's running game, but Miami hasn't been a very good running team all season anyway.
- It'll be up to Tannehill and his arm to win this game. If Miami can't consistently run the ball, it'll make passing difficult. People forget, in that 23-3 loss, the Jets were horrendous on offense, giving Miami multiple chances to score. The key factor is if Miami defense shows up and shuts down this offense. The Jets offense is weird at times and since Rex might be on his way out, they're going to play tough for him and give Miami a fight. Miami needs to consistently move the ball. Tannehill needs to stay poise in the pocket and deliver the ball to Wallace, Hartline, and Clay to make plays down the field.
- I don't believe in Miami enough to be a danger in the postseason. Not after what they did against Buffalo, even after beating New England. Their defense may keep in games, but their offense is inconsistent at times. I picked San Diego to get the #6 seed, but it's going to be tough for the Jets to go in there and beat Miami. I'm picking the Jets to pull off the upset and knock Miami out of playoff contention.
Prediction: Jets defeat Dolphins
Detroit @ Minnesota
- How must the Lions feel? Jay Cutler and Aaron Rodgers were injured, the Lions had just swept Chicago and blew out Green Bay by 30 on Thanksgiving and had a chance to really put a stranglehold on the NFC North, but they lost 3 in a row and the Giants came into their building and knocked them out of playoff contention. What do they have to play for now? Nothing. Now, they're ending their season on the road against a Vikings team that's played pretty good at Home. The Lions give up too many big plays and the Vikings have the receivers to make those big plays. The Lions offense has been inconsistent in those losses, averaging 18.7 in their last 3 games. The Lions may show up to play, but I believe inconsistencies on offense, and big plays by the Vikings will take Detroit out and really give them a worse ending to their season, if that was even possible.
Prediction: Vikings defeat Lions
Washington @ NY Giants
- Let's be honest, the Giants have not had a good season. Starting 0-6, getting blown out left and right, getting shut out at Home by Seattle, etc. But their defining best moment as a team came last week when they played probably their best game of the season and knocked Detroit right out of playoff contention in their own building. And now, in comes the Redskins with Kirk Cousins at QB. Both offenses are lackluster. Eli is on pace for the most picks in a season, but he performed well against the Redskins in their previous meeting. The matchup here is how the Giants defense matches up against the Redskins offense. I believe the Giants will be able to get some easy completions taking advantage of match ups in the coverage. But can the Giants pass rush stop Alfred Morris and contain Cousins and keep him in the pocket? The Giants defense has been playing better at Home, and I'm sure they're gonna send their fans off with a W over a division rival. Game, Big Blue.
Prediction: Giants defeat Redskins
Cleveland @ Pittsburgh
- The Steelers need A LOT of help . They need Miami, Baltimore, AND San Diego to lose, but first they need to win at Home against Cleveland. A Cleveland Browns team that has an underrated defense in terms of getting to passer and playing the pass really well. Their offense is even gradually increasing. It'll be an interesting QB battle between Campbell and Hoyer in the offseason. Getting to the game, the Steelers have put up 30 points in their last 2 games and Le'von Bell has been running the ball well and Pittsburgh's defense will show up to play at Home. The Browns still have Josh Gordon, but I believe the Steelers will be able to contain him and not let him make those big plays against them. It'll be up to whether or not the Browns can stop the Pittsburgh offense. The Browns defense is still ranked 10th, but Cleveland has lost their last 9 trips to Heinz Field. With Big Ben out there getting the ball to Antonio Brown and running the ball well, I don't see them losing.
Prediction: Steelers defeat Browns
Houston @ Tennessee
- The Texans…..what a season they've had. They started 2-0 and dropped 13 straight after that. They had the #1 ranked defense overall and against the pass, but they turned the ball over too many times on offense, couldn't run the ball well, and then Case Keenum happened. He played well, but the Texans were still losing, then things became a mess at QB. Schaub came in, Andre argued with him, and then Kubiak got fired. It's been a long season. Houston still has a 3rd ranked pass defense, but their rush defense is ranked in the 20's. And for a team that hasn't run the ball in the last few games, CJ and Greene should have success running the ball if Fitzpatrick can't get the job done through the air. But I believe the Texans will move the ball on this Titans defense, as underrated as they are, and produce some scoring drives. The Texans last win was in Week 2, in OT……against the Tennessee Titans. I'll go on a leap of faith and take the Texans in this one.
Prediction: Texans defeat Titans
San Francisco @ Arizona
- The Arizona Cardinals did what no team has been able to do in the last 14 games, and that's beat Seattle on their home turf. They brought the heat and made the passing game for Wilson difficult to develop all game long. They jammed receivers, played them tight and brought consistent pressure. Palmer even through 4 INT's in this game, but the Cardinals defense kept them in this. The Cardinals have been playing great Football. Their offense has been good, but it's their defense that wins them these games. They have the #1 ranked rush defense in the league, 7th in points allowed, have only given up 18.0 in their last 3 games, and are averaging almost 3 turnovers per game. They're doing all this with an offense ranked 17th and a passing attack ranked 13th. I'd love to see this team get in solely to see a rematch with Seattle.
- And in come the 49ers. The Niners defense is still an elite unit, but their offense is quite vulnerable. Contrary to what people believe, Kaepernick has been exposed this season. Teams didn't know how to stop him last season, but now they've got his game scouted. Look at what Carolina did; shut down his running and made him beat them from the pocket and he couldn't do it. Kaepernick is a solid pocket passer with a great arm, but his main dynamic is his ability to make plays with his feet and extend the play. When that's taken away and has to throw from the pocket, sometimes he gets the jobs done it, and sometimes he doesn't. The Niners have the speed and hands on offense to match up with the Cardinals defense, but the Cardinals receivers have been developing. We already know how talented Fitz is, but now Michael Floyd has come on as a second deep threat option in the passing game.
- This is tough to call. There's no resting starters. This all depends on how the Saints game goes. If New Orleans loses, the Cardinals will definitely give this game all they've got. The Cardinals need to win this to keep their playoff hopes alive, and the 49ers need to win if they want a #1 seed and Homefield throughout the playoffs. The Cardinals defense has been playing remarkably better this season, gradually increasing after each game, and Arizona has always been a tough place to play. I think the Niners will be able to pass on this team, but any running options will be shut down by Arizona. The Niners defense is still ranked 4th, while Arizona is rained 6th. It's gonna be a defensive struggle. I'm taking the Cardinals. Quietly, VERY quietly, the Cardinals are 6-1 at Home.
Prediction: Cardinals defeat 49ers
Green Bay @ Chicago
- All Chicago had to do was beat Philadelphia and they wouldn't be in this situation. Now, after getting getting washed up 43 the Eagles, they host the Packers and the now returning Aaron Rodgers. Not only do the Bears have to worry about Lacy running down their throats, but now they have Aaron Rodgers to worry about. And now, there are rumors circulating that Randall Cobb might return to. The only advantage Chicago has is that they're at Home.
- But the Packers aren't totally invincible. That Packers secondary was defeated by Josh McCown on Monday Night Football not too long ago. But Cutler gives the Bears the best chance to win. He needs to find his receivers, make smart and accurate passes. Alshon has come on as a dangerous deep ball threat alongside Brandon Marshall. The Packers will have to defend the big play and those inside routes and plays to the tight end. People give Chicago a lot of flack for having the worse rushing defense in the NFL, but Green Bay isn't too far behind, ranked 26th.
- The Bears let the Eagles rushing attack get almost 300 yards on them. They will have to show up big to try to contain Lacy as he has been running the ball extremely well all season long. And now, we get to Aaron Rodgers. This is not Matt Flynn. Let's be real though, Rodgers has been gone for a while and he'll look rusty in this game back, he might miss some plays and make some bad throws, but he'll adjust and when he does, the zip on that ball will get sharper, he's mobile and able to keep the play alive and throw on the run. It was already difficult for Chicago's secondary to match up with Green Bay's receivers, but how will they do it with Rodgers back?
- For starters, the Bears need to stop the run. If they can't stop Lacy, the game will be over before it started like last week. The Bears need to take advantage of the fact that it's Rodgers first game back in a while and rattle him, disrupt his rhythm and force some turnovers. If Chicago can't stop the run, or get any sort of pressure, it's an open and shut case. Chicago may be at Home, but Cutler is 1-8 against Green Bay. Plus, Aaron Rodgers is back, it just got even more difficult for Chicago to win. I'm going to go with Green Bay in this one.
Prediction: Packers defeat Bears
Buffalo @ New England
- The Patriots have the chance to lock the #1 seed with a win and a Denver loss. Their defense is missing some key players, and they've been running the ball better with Blount out there and their offense is getting gradually getting better even without Gronk, but how far can they go in the playoffs with a bunch of rookies, Julian Edleman and Amendola? The Patriots' pass defense is still susceptible to big pass plays. If the Bills can run the ball consistently and control the clock, they can get the job done. EJ Manuel isn't a scrub now, I think he will have success in the passing game and controlling the offense. The Bills defense leads the league in sacks, and they need utilize that. But in the end, I don't think the Bills can get consistent pressure on Brady and he'll have a day spreading the ball around. Plus, they're playing at Home. No way they lose.
Prediction: Patriots defeat Bills
Tampa Bay @ New Orleans
- Would you believe me if I told you that Drew Brees and the Saints could possibly MISS the playoffs? It's true. If Arizona wins and somehow the Saints manage to blow it against the Bucs, the Cards are in and the Saints are out. While the Cards won 5 out of their last 6, the Saints lost 3 out of their last 6 making them tied with the Cardinals at 10-5. But unfortunately for Arizona, I don't think the Saints lose. They're undefeated at Home, while the Bucs are 1-6 on the road this season. The Bucs defense isn't how they used to be. They used to be stingy at giving up big running plays and containing the deep ball. Their offense found rhythm and thrived on pounding the ball and deep plays of their own.
- Now? They've given up close to 130 over their last 3 games, but have only given up 20.7 points. I think the Bucs will pressure Brees and get to him early, but eventually the Saints will get it together with the passes over the middle and those little screen plays. The Saints are averaging well over 30 points per game in the Super Dome. The Bucs offense will struggle early. The Saints pass rush has been very good at Home as well. Under Rob Ryan, the Saints are 5th in points allowed per game, and ranked 3rd overall. When the Saints get it going at Home, it's almost impossible to contain them. Sorry Cards, but Brees hasn't lost at Home all season. I'll be absolutely stunned if the Bucs knock New Orleans off. Then again, it's a divisional game and the last time these teams played, the Saints only won by 2 points.
Prediction: Saints defeat Buccaneers
Denver @ Oakland
- Peyton has broken the Single Season TD record with 51 TD's and now has a chance to break the record for most passing yards in a season this Sunday. Depending on the Patriots game, Denver may or may not play their starters. Denver wants that #1 seed and Homefield throughout the playoffs. They don't want to go up to Foxboro where everything will be against them. The Broncos lost Von Miller for the season which is a HUGE loss as the Broncos no have virtually no consistent pass rush now. As if the Broncos secondary wasn't vulnerable enough, with no pass rush, QB's will be throwing at will. But since Terrelle Pryor is starting this Sunday, he'll make it even harder for Denver. Being a dual threat, his speed outside of the pocket, making plays with his feet will give Denver some trouble. And combined that with the fact that he's a decent pocket passer himself, it gives them more trouble.
- But here's where it falls apart, Oakland's defense has to play against Peyton Manning. Their defense has not been very good as of late, giving up 30 points in each of their previous 4 games, including the 56 to Kansas City. Wes isn't cleared to play, but Peyton still has his main weapons to throw to. Demaryius, Decker, Caldwell, Julius, and Knoshown in the backfield has given the Broncos a stout running game. Oakland's offense may give Denver's offense the fits, but Denver still has Peyton Manning. I give the W to the Broncos.
Prediction: Broncos defeat Raiders
Kansas City @ San Diego
- The Chiefs cannot go any higher than the #5 seed. They're locked in there, so I wouldn't be surprised if Andy Reid didn't play his starters the whole game. The Chiefs have been averaging over 30 points per game since their loss to Denver, but are still 4th in points per game with 18.5. The Chargers already showed the Chiefs what they have on offense earlier in the season putting 41 on them. Without consistent pressure, Rivers was able to torch the defense and get the ball to Woodhead, Allen, Gates, etc.
- The Chiefs offense is no longer as inconsistent as earlier on in the season. Alex Smith can make those passes down the field now, he's become quite mobile in the pocket, and better at throwing on the run. And let's not forget Jamaal Charles. But the San Diego receivers match up well against the Kansas City defense and are able to get open and get separation, but that in turn is because Rivers has time to throw the ball. If the Chiefs don't get that pressure on Rivers, he will make those throws and wear out that defense.
So, does Andy Reid play his starters the whole game and attempt to knock San Diego out of the playoffs? I think so. But this Chargers team, in my opinion, is the best out of the 4 (Miami, Baltimore, & Pittsburgh) to make it to the playoffs. They may not be a great defensive team (11th in points per game allowed), but that offense is scary good, and if they get in the playoffs, it'll be a tough out trying to contain them. San Diego for the sweep.
Prediction: Chargers defeat Chiefs
St. Louis @ Seattle
- For the first time in 14 Home Games, the Seahawks were beaten on their home turf. The Cardinals defense came to play, brought the pressure on Russell Wilson and those boys, contained the offense and even though Palmer threw 4 INT's, they made the plays when it counted. The Rams have a stronger defensive line, but where the Rams lack is consistent play in the secondary. They have a 20th ranked pass defense, but depend on their defensive line to collapse the pocket, flush Wilson out and make plays out of the pocket. With the speed of the Rams edge rushers, it appears that Wilson will be running for most of the game. That's not a knock on the offensive line, but a credit to how dominant that Rams defensive line is.
- Then there's the Rams offense. In their last meeting, the Rams offense only managed to put up 9 points while Seattle only mustered 14. Clemens can make plays, but he needs to choose them accordingly. The Seahawks have a strong rush defense, but I expect Stacy to get a good chunk of those carries and create lanes and make some plays in the open field. I don't think the Rams offensive weapons match up well with the Seahawks strong and physical defensive backs. The Rams only hope of winning is behind that defense and containing that offense, holding down Beast Mode, continuously making Russell Wilson run and force turnovers. That being said, I think Seattle will struggle early, but St. Louis isn't Arizona, they won't keep this team down forever. Seattle got caught off guard once, it won't happen again.
Prediction: Seahawks defeat Rams
Philadelphia @ Dallas
- The field was set for Romo and the Cowboys to, maybe, win the NFC East. But Romo now has a bad back. Reports say he's not playing Sunday, but Jason Garrett says he's day-to-day, so take that for what it's worth. Kyle Orton, for the moment, is penciled in to start at QB. Orton is an efficient passer from what I remember from his days with Chicago and Denver. He was QB of the Chiefs when they broke the Packers potentially undefeated record back in 2011. This isn't the same team that Dallas beat 17-3 in October. Foles has been playing a lot better, leading the league in QBR, 23 TD's to 2 INT's and he's got the top rushing attack behind him.
- The only way Dallas has a chance is if Orton doesn't try too much. Let him manage the game and take the shots only when he has him. I'm not making it sound like Orton is absolute trash because he's not. He's average to me as a passer, but they're probably gonna make the game plan simple for him, and hand it off to Demarco most of the time. Let's be real, Orton may be a solid QB, but he hasn't played in a while. Speaking of Demarco, the Eagles rushing defense has gotten better over the weeks. They're only ranked 12th, but they've only given up 75.3 yards on the ground in their last 3 grounds. Gradually, that team has gotten better on both sides of the ball and is now hard to stop no matter what.
- If by some miracle, Romo ends up playing, Dallas may have a shot, but look at the previous seasons in Week 17 games with the division on the line. The loss to the Giants (31-14), and last season to Washington (28-18.) I think with Romo at helm, the Cowboys give them a fight, but this Eagles team is determined and has been playing too well not to make it in. They won't let the Cowboys stop them.
Prediction: Eagles defeat Cowboys
Enjoy The Games!
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By: Gerald "Showstopper" Prophete
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