Saturday, November 16, 2013

NFL Week 11 Predictions





New York @ Buffalo

- The last time we saw The Jets, they upset the Saints. Now, they go on the road against Buffalo. Despite Buffalo's record, they're a tough team to beat, especially in their home building. They still play good defense up front are still tied for 2nd in the league in total interceptions. Where the Jets have the Bills beat is defense. Their defensive line has speed off the ball and are successful at getting pressure. They're top defense in the league against the run letting up just 73.8 rushing yards per game. Both defense still give up 25 points per game. 

- In this aspect, the Jets have the Bills beat on offense too. The Bills have EJ Manuel back, but he'll be without Stevie Johnson and Robert Woods, probably his two best deep threats, so he'll have to depend some rookies to get the job done. Geno will get Santonio back giving their offense some more firepower and with the way Chris Ivory has been running the ball, the Jets look like they can take the Bills no problem.

- But Buffalo has Homefield advantage. The Bills will have to rely on their defense to make some stops. Without his two best weapons, Manuel will likely struggle to move the ball down the field and with the Jets top ranked rush defense, it'll be hard to make some leeway on the ground with Spillers and Jackson. The Bills hometown will be loud and behind their team. Mario Williams and that defensive line are gonna get to Geno, but I'm taking the Jets. The Bills are banged up on offense, and I don't see them producing. 

Prediction: Jets defeat Bills



Baltimore @ Chicago

- The Bears are coming off a heartbreak at Home against Detroit getting swept by them for the first time since 2007. The forecast calls for rain and maybe some storms. So, this will be a sloppy, defensive struggle. The Ravens took down Cincy in Overtime and got back in the AFC North hunt. Ray Rice hasn't been producing well and the Super Bowl Champions are 4-5. But I believe they're ready to turn the corner. The Bears best chance at getting into the playoffs went down in flames with Jay Cutler. McCown is a solid backup, but I don't think he has the tools to lead Chicago to the playoffs. Their defense is giving up 27.4 points per game.

- The Ravens defense are 9th in points allowed, but their pass defense still gives up 239.7 yards through the air. With Marshall out there and Jeffrey emerging as an excellent #2, McCown can make some plays in the passing game and move the ball down the field. The Ravens will be able to move the ball at well. Dallas Clark is getting back to his old form and getting more involved in the offense. If the conditions are serious, we'll see a heavy dose of Ray Rice and Matt Forte.

- It'll be a battle of defenses. The Ravens defense is statistically better and will be able to rush McCown, and get some consistent pressure. That win against The Bengals resurged the Ravens and I think they're ready to turn the corner and make a playoff push. The Bears loss to the Lions may have deflated them and the Ravens are going to deliver another blow. I've got the Ravens.

Prediction: Ravens defeat Bears



Cleveland @ Cincinnati 

- The Bengals are coming off a big loss against the Ravens after losing in OT. Now, they come home and face Cleveland. The Browns have played their divisional rivals tough. They quietly have the 5th ranked defense and beat Cincy earlier this season when the Bengals were struggling on offense and only put up 6 points. The Bengals are undefeated at Home, outscoring opponents 116-55. They have the 4th ranked defense overall, #8 ranked offense and the 7th ranked passing attack. The Bengals have found their stride utilizing their offensive weapons in AJ, Sanu, Jones, Gresham, Bernard, etc. 

- The Browns are quietly one of the best defenses in the league. They're ranked 5th overall, 9th in points allowed per game. Their offense has had its days where they produce and days where they struggle. Campbell isn't the best QB, but he's been doing his best. He's got a 60.88 completion percentage and 5 TD's to 0 INT over his last two games. He showed up and played well against that Baltimore Defense. The Bengals may be missing Geno Atkins, but they can still get some consistent pressure. Probably lacking the sacks department, but they can hurry the QB. 

- The Browns and Bengals games are always weird. The Browns are actually 2-1 in the last 3 meetings between these teams. The Browns are gonna come to play, get some pressure, and get to Dalton. The Bengals need this win to stop Baltimore from making a surge. The Browns play their divisional rivals really well, especially this Bengals team and their instate rivalry. But the Bengals are 4-0 at home and are in a place to put some distance between them and the rest of the AFC North. It'll be a close, defensive struggle, but I believe the Bengals will be able to make some plays in the passing game and the Bengals defense will be a little much for Campbell to handle. I've got the Bengals.

Prediction: Bengals defeat Browns 



Oakland @ Houston

- The Texans season is pretty much done. Their defense is still #1 in the league in total yards and pass yards per game. The Raiders have a tough test here. Houston has the best pass defense, so Pryor will have to make careful throws. The Raiders will have to run the ball a lot there. Houston's rush defense is ranked 16th, and Oakland has the 5th best rushing attack in the league. They'll have to run the ball to set up Pryor and make plays down the field. The Texans defensive line will have to be ready for the run and defend this read option and shut down Pryor's playmaking abilities. Case Keenum has already proven he's a good QB so far this season. He's got great playmaking ability when it comes to throwing the ball down the field and can make great throws in tight coverage. The Raiders defensive line is underrated. They can rush the passer quite well, and their defense will have to make plays. All in all, Houston has the best defense at home against an inconsistent offensive team. I'll take Keenum & the Texans. The Raiders are giving up over 200 yards through the air.

Prediction: Texans defeat Raiders



Arizona @ Jacksonville

- The Cardinals are quietly sitting at 5-4. They're 4-2 in their last 6 games and their defense has been a major factor of this. They've got 26 sacks on the season, giving up 22 points per game and have 12 picks on the season. The Cardinals have quietly had a solid defense for quite some time, but their offense has never balanced it out. Palmer hasn't playing extremely well, but he's been playing well enough to get wins for this team. 

- The Jaguars finally got their win last week against Tennessee. I'll admit, I picked this game for the Jags to get their win because of the Homefield advantage. Now that the Jags have a win and the pressure is off, they might try to play a little more loosely and the Cardinals defense is going to overpower them. The Jaguars can't contain the Cardinals offense for the whole game and Arizona's defense is playing better with each game. They're tied at 5-4 with Green Bay and Chicago and a game behind San Fran for the 6 seed. Don't sleep on the Cardinals. As long they keep playing good football, they can somehow make it in.

Prediction: Cardinals defeat Jags



Washington @ Philadelphia

- The Eagles and Cowboys are tied atop the NFC East. The Eagles have been playing good Football as of late. Granted they beat Oakland and a Green Bay team without Aaron Rodgers, but they've still won these games and not choked. The last time these two teams faced was in Week 1 and Philly's fast, quick strike offense wore out the Redskins. Both teams have changed. The Redskins are hitting their stride and the Eagles are at their peak as well. 

- The Eagles are going to be able to move the ball. They'll be able to stretch the field against the Redskins' secondary. DeAngelo vs Deseasn will be interesting to watch, but Foles has connected with Cooper in each game making him the go to guy for Foles. Their offense in general puts up 400 yards a game and they've got the #2 ranked rushing attack in the league. The Redskins are 18th in rushing defense. On the Redskins' side, their offensive line has been inconsistent. They've given up 18 sacks and RG3 has been hit over 50 times. They've got to do a better job protecting him against this Eagles pass rush.

- The Eagles defense is better up front, but their secondary is allowing over 300 yards through the air. If RG3 has time in the pocket, he's going to have success against the Eagles secondary. The Redskins give up 31.9 points per game and Foles has been on a roll with this offense. I want to say the Redskins can win this game, but the Eagles have a better defense, and if Foles can keep up this playing style, making good throws and their offense runs the ball effectively, the Eagles should win this. Both offenses are almost equal, but Philly has the edge in defense. Foles has 16 TD's and 0 INT's and Lesean McCoy is the league's leading rusher. I'll take Philly at Home.

Prediction: Eagles defeat Redskins



Detroit @ Pittsburgh

- The Lions swept Chicago and are 6-3 atop the NFC North. Their running game has been quite efficient this season. As a whole, they don't have 1,000 yards on the season yet, but Bush and Bell have been a great 1-2 punch to balance Detroit's offense. Pittsburgh's defense maybe 5th in pass yards per game, but they're still giving up 127.2 yards per game. The Lions are going to have success on the ground getting consistent runs and winning the clock management battle. Ike Taylor and Ryan Clark will have a hard time with Megatron. But even if he struggles, Stafford has Pettigrew, rookie Fauria, and Randle and Broyles, but Burleson is still out. 

- The Steelers offense has struggled all season. Most of the blame can go to Todd Haley and his play calling not letting Ben do what he does and extend the play to expand the offense. They've found somewhat of a running attack with Bell out there coming out as a strong back. Ben seems lost with his weapons on offense except for Heath and Antonio Brown. Detroit is quite susceptible to the big play ball, so they'll have to attack that secondary and throw it deep. Their defense will have to make some plays and rattle Stafford. 

- If the Lions can defend the big play, get some turnovers and pound the ball, they can win. Pittsburgh's defense can't stop the run and their offense struggles quite a bit. Detroit is already 2-0 against the AFC North. Dick Leabeau's defense isn't what it used to be. I've got the Lions.

Prediction: Lions defeat Steelers



Atlanta @ Tampa Bay

- The Falcons certainly didn't predict what was going to happen this season at all. 2-7, losing their best deep threat, getting beat down by Carolina on the road, and getting stomped at home by Seattle. They go on the road now against a Bucs team that finally got its first win. The Falcons are in the bottom 5 in points allowed, and the Bucs are only giving up 23.2 points per game. Matt Ryan hasn't played like Matt Ryan at all this season. You could blame the injuries, but the Falcons just seem, off. Their offense is inconsistent, their running game is only averaging 64.3 yards on the ground, and they just can't seem to find any sort of rhythm. 

- The Bucs have a solid defense that can rush the passer. Glennon hasn't lit up the scoreboards, but he's played well. Made some good throws, finding the open receivers, and moving the ball down the field. But in this divisional game, I've got to take the Falcons. Surely, they can't lose 3 in a row. The Bucs defense may be solid, but I believe the Falcons will find a way to move the ball, put up the points. The Falcons defense played well against Glennon last time. The Falcons season is already over, but I say they'll still sweep Tampa Bay.

Prediction: Falcons defeat Buccaneers



San Diego @ Miami

- The Chargers came up short against Denver and Miami gave Tampa Bay their lone win of the season.  Coming home, they've got a big test against San Diego. The key to this game is whether or not Miami's defense can slow down the Chargers offense. Can Miami's defensive front pressure Rivers and disrupt his rhythm? Both defense are giving up over 300 yards per game, but just allowing 22 points per game. Tannehill has found a new weapon in the passing game in Matthews, replacing Gibson. He's good red zone target and efficient in the slot game. Their offense has been stagnant the last few games and haven't played to the potential they were in the beginning of the season. 

- The Chargers are 4th in yards and points per game. Although the Chargers are 4-5, Rivers has still been playing well throwing the ball down the field. His completion% is still 71.6 with 18 TD's to 7 INT's on the season. Players like Eddie Royal and Keenan Allen are emerging in the passing game along with the reliable Gates out there. 

- This game has the potential to be a shootout. Miami's defensive line is inconsistent at getting pressure on the QB. They'll have to find ways to pressure Rivers and force him into bad throws. The Dolphins haven't relied on their running game much, but I believe they'll be able to move the ball on this offense. Tannehill will struggle early. The Chargers scheme isn't particularly confusing, but Tannehill has just been inconsistent this season. Rivers and these Chargers are a more complete team than Miami. 

Prediction: Chargers defeat Dolphins



San Francisco @ New Orleans

- Last season, the Niners defense contained Brees on offense, and even had 2 pick sixes. This season is a different story. The Niners defense is still solid up front and deep in the secondary, but now the Saints are playing good defense (5th in points allowed, and 3rd against the pass) they have a new fire under them, and their offense is 2nd behind Denver in total offense and yards per game. They had 40 first downs last week against the Cowboys. They outscore opponents at home 176-75. That's absolutely insane. The Saints love to work the middle of the field, so the Niners linebackers will have to be ready to have that part of the field covered. Their running game is efficient and they love working Sproles and Thomas in the passing game with screens and swing passes to get big yardage. 

- I believe the Niners will be able to contain the Saints offense, and not give up the big play. They'll need to manage the clock and work that running game. The Saints are 10th in defense against the pass giving up over 100 yards per game. Vernon Davis is still questionable for the game, but having him really makes the passing game that much more dangerous. I think the Niners defensive line can get to Brees and generate some pressure and get sacks on him. If Davis isn't good to go, the Niners will have to put up consistent numbers in the passing game. They were held to just 157 total yards against Carolina. They'll need to work the sideline, get Boldin more involved and Kaep will have to make good decisions. The Saints defensive line is underrated. They don't generate a ton of sacks, but they can get to the QB.

- After last week, there's one thing you don't do and that's choose against Drew Brees in the Super Dome. When that offense gets going in that building, they're on another level. The Niners will have their work cut out for them, but I can't see them winning against Brees. With Payton back and that team is better disciplined and a better defensive unit than they were all of last season, I can't seem them dropping this game.

Prediction: Saints defeat 49ers



Green Bay @ New York

- Aaron Rodgers is down, Seneca Wallace is down, Green Bay resigned Matt Flynn, making him backup to Scott Tolzien. Tolzien had 280 last week and plays the Giants on the road. The Giants have really squeaked by in their wins. Beating a Vikings team with a QB that didn't even know the whole offense yet, beating an injuries Raiders team, and barely squeaking by the Eagles. From what I saw from Tolzien, he made some good throws, there were times where held onto the ball a little long, but he's still learning. With Jordy and James Jones helping him out, I'm sure he'll be able to connect and move the ball. He'll struggle at first, but he'll get it together. 

- The Giants, at Home, have injuries on defense, Eli has played poorly all season, they're 3-6, but can still win the NFC East. Their defensive line will cause some havoc and rattle the young QB. The Giants really lucked out here….again. That offense isn't as explosive with Aaron Rodgers out there at the helm. We're gonna see what Tolzien is made of, but I see the Giants squeaking out a win. Green Bay has the playmakers on offense, but I already don't trust Tolzien out of Green Bay and in hostile territory like New York. 

Prediction: Giants defeat Packers



Minnesota @ Seattle

- The Vikings pulled out a great win over Washington last Thursday, but they're playing a whole other animal. The Seahawks have emerged as probably the best team in the NFC. Their defense makes plays all across the board, and Russell Wilson has stepped his game up from last season, efficiently making plays in the passing game and emerging as a consistent and efficient runner. They've got the #1 rushing attack in the league and a defense that's ranked 3rd, allowing 15.9 points per game. They come home after delivering a sound thrashing to the Falcons. The Seahawks haven't been blowing teams out at Home. The Titans and Bucs gave them a run for their money. So, I wouldn't be surprised if the Vikings make a game out of this. But their defense isn't as stout and gritty like the Bucs and Titans are. Their secondary is exposable and I can see the Seahawks taking advantage of their coverage schemes and making plays down the field and running the ball.

- The Vikings will have to collapse the pocket around Wilson and control the clock if they want to steal a victory. Ponder will have to make some plays against this Seahawks defense. But all in all, I don't see the Vikings winning. They'll try and make a game of it, but I don't trust Ponder against this defense. Even with AP in the backfield, they'll have to produce through the air. The Seahawks are a complete team, STILL unbeaten at Home, and are a tough team to beat in front of their home crowd. The Seahawks take this one and after this, their schedule becomes tough; home against the Saints, @ the 49ers, @ The Giants, and end the season at Home against St. Louis & Arizona.

Prediction: Seahawks defeat Vikings



Kansas City @ Denver

- This is the BIG one. The 9-0 Chiefs go on the road to take the 8-1 Denver Broncos. The Chiefs defense has been the best on the season. They lead in almost every defensive category; points allowed per game, opposing red zone percentage, opposing red zone TD's, they lead the league in sacks, they've allowed 12.3 points per game and no team has scored above 17 on them all season long. But here's the thing, the Chiefs are facing the top offense in the league in points, yards, and total offense in general. They haven't faced an offense like this before. This will be their biggest test of the season. The Broncos are the top offense in almost every category; points per game, total yards per game, red zone TD's, average yards per play, pass yards per game, etc. Something will have to give between these two teams.

- In the 2 meetings against the Chiefs last season, Manning had 589 yards, 5 TD's and 1 INT. The KC defensive front will have to be on their GAME to get at Manning. Manning is a different man when the pocket collapses, but if he's faced with a blitz rush, he'll step up in the pocket and fire the ball down the field and find his man. The only team that has  stopped the Broncos were the Colts. Their pass rush and offensive playmaking won that game for them. If the Chiefs pass rush fails and doesn't get to Manning, what's to stop them for going for 30? The Broncos will have to work the middle of the field, run those inside plays where they set picks to get the receivers open. They'll have to control the clock, because the Chiefs love to just dink and dunk, and check down offensively. The Colts O-Line haven't faced a pass rush like this since the Colts game and you saw how that turned out.

- But the thing is, can Alex Smith put up consistent numbers in the passing game? Ever since the Cowboys, the Broncos defense have shown signs of vulnerability. They have the #4 ranked pass defense, but ranked in the 20s in pass defense. That secondary is vulnerable, but they lack a consistent pass rush. If the Broncos go up by 14 points, can Alex Smith bring them back? Smith has been playing efficiently this season, making plays with his feet and consistently playing mistake free ball. Jamaal Charles has been a beast this season and the Chiefs have averaged over 100 on the ground in almost each game. Their offense has been quite inconsistent and constantly having to be bailed out by their defense. Games like against Houston, and more recently, Buffalo come to mind. Their offense may be poor, but their defense is what keeps and wins them games. I person

- The Broncos have been an offensive juggernaut all season, the Chiefs defense have shut down run games, made clutch plays whether it be fumbles, or INT's and have won games. Their defense leads the league in sacks and they face a broken Broncos offensive line. If they can get to Manning, and Alex Smith doesn't turn the ball over, they may have a chance. But in Denver, that crowd will be going crazy. I believe the Broncos defense will make Smith struggle and force him into bad throws. We'll see what this Chiefs defense is made when they face a High Caliber QB and a juggernaut of an offense. It's going to be interesting to watch, but I've got Denver. The Chiefs will get them in Kansas City, but for this game, I'm going with the Broncos.

Prediction: Broncos defeat Chiefs



New England @ Carolina

- I told you all the Panthers were for real. They shut down the Niners offense and their defense came to play BIG TIME holding the Niners to just 9 points and Kaep only threw for 91 yards, and that defense had 6 sacks, and 2 turnovers. That defensive line is one of the best in Football, and their defense is ranked 3rd, allowing just 12.8 points per game. And in comes Tom Brady and the Patriots. They just put 55 on Dick Leabeau's defense. The Panthers defensive line are wild and are going to gunning for Brady all game. The Patriots offense has struggled this season, but I'll be interested in seeing how the Panthers defense Gronk and Amendola in this game. I don't think putting a LB on him is wise, unless it's Kuechly. Amendola can be covered in the slot, and maybe just have a QB spy. I'll interested to see what schemes that defense dials up to contain Brady's offensive weapons. 

- The Patriots are going to do what they do best against a defense like this. They love to throw those short to intermediate routes, eat up chunks of yardage and wear out the defense. They love to work the middle with Gronk and it looks like they've found their deep threat in Kenbrell Tompkins. If the Patriots want to win, that's what they'll have to do; wear out the defense with quick outs, slants, out routes, etc. because their pass defense is ranked 4th in the league, but there are times where they can get beat on the long ball. 

- I haven't even talked about Cam Newton yet. His arm strength and ability to throw the ball has been especially effective this season. His playmaking ability outside of the pocket has been great as usual. When he gets going, he'll make some big time throws in tight windows and move the ball down the field. They will need to get DeAngelo involved more and get him some more carries. If Cam struggles through the air, they'll have to turn their run game. The Patriots pass defense can be exposed, but it takes the right play calling to do it. 5 wide sets, play action, crossing patterns, etc. The Patriots defense have allowed just 19.5 points per game. Their defensive stats aren't impressive, but they can lock down and play some tight coverage and rush the passer.

- The Panthers defense is the key in this game. If they come to play like they did against San Francisco, Brady will have a tough time out there. The Panthers pass rush is relentless and are masterful at hurrying the QB, forcing them into bad throws. They'll have to cover the middle well, cover up those slot patterns, clog the gaps to contain the running game and control the clock. I think Brady will struggle to move the ball on this defense, even with Gronk and Amendola on the field. The Panthers pass rush will be too much and Brady's throws will either be off, or he'll get sacked. If this game was in New England, I say the Patriots take it, but in Carolina, against a team that's 6-3, playing fantastic defense and still in contention to not only make the playoffs, but win the division, they'll either make another statement win, or get brought down to Earth. The Panthers are on a roll, and I don't think Brady's team can take on this defense and win. The Panthers are rolling.

Prediction: Panthers defeat Patriots



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