NFL Week 12 Predictions

Week 12 started off with the Saints beating the Falcons 17-13. I wasn't too surprised by the score. It's a divisional game and these two teams are strong rivals. The Falcons defense showed up and contained Brees and the offense. He had 228 yards and 2 TD's and put up 17 points with that offense. Matt Ryan and the offense was moving the ball, but failed to cash in on red zone scores, consistent ball movement, a missed FG late in the fourth and they couldn't run the ball effectively as well. Not to mention, the Saints sacked him 4 times and didn't pick him off. All that and Atlanta still could've won in the end, but the Saints held them off. 

People already crowned the Saints as the best team in the NFC, forgetting that the Seahawks are 10-1 and the fact that they mopped the floor with these same Atlanta Falcons back in Week 10. The Seahawks meet the Saints next Monday night. 

In fact, I'm going to make a few blog posts tomorrow about which team I think is the best in the AFC and NFC.

Let's get to these games!

NY Jets @ Baltimore 

- The Jets are barely hanging on that #6 seed in the AFC with teams like Baltimore and Pittsburgh coming up behind them. The Jets offensive strength comes from power running. Geno can make the throws and extend the play, but it's the running game that sets up the passing attack. But mainly, it's their defense that's been keeping them in games, mainly their defensive line led with Wilkerson and Pace effectively getting pressure on the QB, with 28 sacks on the season and ranked #1 in the league in rushing yards allowed. They secondary, though, is where they get beat as they give up the big play more often than not. But Geno normally does well in games after a loss. 

- The Ravens have won 2 out of their last 6 games and the defending Super Bowl Champions are 4-6 on the season. Flacco has been wildly inconsistent and that offense is one dimensional since the focus is clearly on Torrey Smith with Anquan gone and Ray Rice not really producing well this season. Their defense still gives up 21.2 points per game and their defense has 34 sacks on the season. Their offense slowly has finding other options though. Dallas Clark is getting more involved and Tanden Doss has stepped up as a decent receiver as well. With rumors that Dennis Pitta might come back, their offense might just get that spark.

- While I like the Jets and the fact that they have this W-L-W-L this going, I think this will be the first time they lose 2 games in a row this season. With Santonio back and that offense opening up a little more, Geno will make those throws in tight windows as he has the arm to do so. He'll find ways to extend the play and find the open man. People don't realize how well Geno performs in games after a loss. His QBR is 60 or higher, and his completion percentage is 55% or higher in all the Jets wins this season. He even had a 42.11 completion percentage against the Saints and his team still won that game. He's had 7 TD's to 4 INT's in wins, but 1 TD and 14 INT's in his losses. But on the road, against a Baltimore team that knows they're not completely out of it and are hungry for a win, I don't think the Jets can pull it off. It'll be a defensive struggle with both lines really getting after the ball, but once it's all said and done, I'll take the home team.

Prediction: Ravens defeat Jets

Tampa Bay @ Detroit

- Detroit ran into a hungry and resilient Pittsburgh team last Sunday. They were down 20-3, came back and scored 24 unanswered, and only managed to score 3 points in the second half while Pittsburgh tacked on 17 more points and won. They doubled Calvin the second half and Stafford looked like quite a different QB back there. He didn't complete a pass in the entire 4th Quarter. And now since the Bears defeated Baltimore, they are tied once again atop the NFC North. They come home to face a strong Tampa Bay team. They've won 2 straight and team with nothing to lose can always shake things up and play spoiler for other teams. Glennon has come alive and has been playing quite well. I was very unsure he would last this long, but he's been very good. He had an 86% completion percentage against Atlanta last Sunday. The offense has learned to include Vincent Jackson more in the offense throwing the ball down field to him. Their running game got a spark with 3rd stringer Rainey. The Lions defensive weakness is giving up the big play and stopping the run. And with Vincent Jackson out there, being susceptible to the big play will be common.

- Bucs are ranked 18th in pass yards per game, so expect Stafford to have some offensive production in this game. Their secondary isn't especially strong, so matching up against Megatron and Pettigrew will be tough. If Burleson is good to go, that's another weapon. Their strength is their defensive line. They can get some pressure and generate sacks. Their ranked 9th overall in rush yards per game giving up just 101.4 yards per game. The Lions have an especially strong running game the way Reggie Bush and Joique Bell have produced this season. It'll be interesting to see how they stack the box and plug those gaps to prepare for those two. You take away the Lions' running game and Megatron, you've got them beat dead to rights. 

- But the Lions, coming off a loss, playing at Home should win this one. The Bucs defense is strong, but I think the Lions pretty much have the best offensive line in Football allowing the least amount of sacks this season and doing a solid job protecting Stafford. I'll go with the home team.

Prediction: Lions defeat Buccaneers

Minnesota @ Green Bay

- The NFC North looks like it'll just come down to Chicago & Detroit. Green Bay have already dropped 2 in a row without Aaron Rodgers. The Vikings are no better. They got stomped on by Seattle last week. The Vikings have the running game working in their favor with Peterson, but Lacy has really come on strong and he's making a case for Rookie of the Year. Tolzien played well in the Giants game. He made some good throws, but he just couldn't close the deal on the road against the Giants, but I think he gets it done here.

- The Vikings are giving up over 30 points per game and they're playing in Green Bay. Ponder hasn't looked great at all compared to last season, and their offensive can't find any consistent rhythm in making plays down the field. Tolzien has 2 games under his belt and he's getting better and better. He hasn't made stupid plays, he's got a good arm, he knows how to make those big time throws, and he's got Jordy and Jones out there to bail him out, not to mention a beast of a running back on his side. The Vikings just don't have it to contend with Green Bay. This isn't just an auto W for Minnesota just because Rodgers isn't playing. The Vikings are not that good of a team.

Prediction: Packers over Vikings

Jacksonville @ Houston

UPSET ALERT!

- The Texans are in a state of total disarray. Going from AFC South Champions one year, to 2-8 the next. They are watching their season fall apart, but there's a small glimmer of hope with Case Keenum making plays. Schaub is likely done in Houston. The fans were booing him when he entered the game last week. Schaub and Andre were even having words with each other, not pleasant ones either. The Jags have been steadily increasing even before their win at Tennessee. They've been running the ball better, playing better defense, and their offense hasn't looked as incompetent as it has in the past. Texans still have the top ranked defense overall and against the pass, but I believe the Jags will be able to move the ball and get some good running plays going, controlling the clock in the process. No doubt Keenum will get his yards. That kid is a solid QB no matter which way you look at it and he and Andre have been a deadly combination since he took over. But divisional games are always tough match ups, and Jacksonville may be a bad team, but they've at least been getting better and Houston has been falling and falling. I've got the Jags in this game.

Prediction: Jaguars defeat Texans

San Diego @ Kansas City

- Kansas City is no longer undefeated. They went up against a stacked offense and gave up over 400 yards of total offense, but still held Denver to 27 points. The Broncos won the battle at the line of scrimmage and didn't allow the team that led the league in sacks to get any consistent pressure or any sacks for that matter. Now, they face another high octane offense in San Diego where Rivers, statistically, is having a great season throwing the football. But the Chargers are quite an inconsistent team and usually give up big leads. They're 2-4 on the road and KC is undefeated at Home. I believe San Diego will be able to move the ball down the field, but they have to score TD's when they get in the red zone. FG's won't cut it. They have to control the line of scrimmage like Denver did and take out KC's defensive line. If they can do that, moving the ball won't be an issue and River can sling it over the middle finding his targets. If his offensive line gets overwhelmed, it'll be a long day.

- But can Alex Smith consistently produce. He was playing well in the 1st half against Denver, but not so much in the 2nd half. That offense is still consistent, and the team as a whole, relies on the strength of their defense to win games. We saw against Denver that when this team falls behind 14, they can't consistently make plays and comeback. But I believe, playing at Home, KC will find it's rhythm offensively and move the ball. The Chargers defense is quite weak itself. If this game was in San Diego, I'd say the Chargers take it, but playing at Arrowhead, in front of their home crowd, this KC defense will get back to what works for them and that's generating sacks and getting pressure. It'll be a close one, but I think KC bounces back and gets the win.

Prediction: Chiefs defeat Chargers

Carolina @ Miami

- Carolina is on a 6 game winning streak, including a win knocking off New England last Monday. I'm going to get in the controversial call here. The ball was uncatchable. By the time Gronk would made an adjustment to the ball it would've either hit the floor incomplete, or sailed out the back on the end zone. Gronk could've been more aggressive to get to the ball, and despite Gronk being held, Lester cut off the route and made a pick. The ball would've never even gotten to Gronk in time, it still would've been an interception. I don't get the issue there. How can there be a penalty on a ball that's uncatchable? The real story of that game is Cam Newton's go ahead drive to put his team up 24-20. That HUGE drive was lost in translation because of a stupid penalty that wasn't a penalty in the first place.

- Getting to the game, Carolina over took KC as the best defense in the league in points allowed per game by a very small margin. This team is playing magnificent football. Their defense is what holds this team together and is making them so good. Cam Newton has always been a great playmaker, it was Carolina's defense that was the problem. This season, their defense is one of, if not, the best in the league and you see the results. Luke Kuechly is making a case for DPOY, their defensive is tied for 2nd for most interceptions this season, and have 31 sacks on the season. Their defensive line is absolutely beastly at getting to the ball and forcing some pressure. Look at how they got after Brady in that game even had a couple of sacks. Cam reminded us how good of a player he last Monday Night with that go ahead drive to put his team up 24-20 late in the 4th. 

- That defense is monstrous up front and they're going up against one of the worse offensive lines in Football in Miami. Miami O-Line leads the league in sacks allowed. Tannehill's line will have to buy him time to find his receivers. His receivers will have to get open and stay consistent. That receiving core has been all but consistent this season. They need to control the clock and run the ball. But the Panthers are even then only allowing 9.1 pass yards per completion. Their secondary knows how to work the receivers on the line. But with good that defensive line plays, Tannehill will be forced into erratic throws. Playing in Miami can be tough, but Carolina has the defense working in their favor. It just feels like their year to make some noise in the NFC.

Prediction: Panthers defeat Dolphins

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland 

- The Steelers started 0-4 and since then, have won 4 out of their last 6 games. Their defense comes off a great performance containing the Stafford/Megatron combination shutting them out in the 4th Quarter.   The Browns turned the ball over way too many times last week against Cincy giving up 31 in the 2nd Quarter, with 24 of those points coming off turnovers. That's something they can't do against this Pittsburgh team. I don't think Campbell will be able to perform consistently against this Steelers team. The Browns have an 8th ranked running defense, but Le'von Bell has been running well for the Steelers as of late, effective in screen plays as well. The Steelers defense will have to take advantage and force Campbell into turnovers and poor throws. 

- I don't think Campbell in general will fair very well against Pittsburgh's defense. I don't believe the Browns will take advantage of the weaknesses in Pittsburgh's defense, take shots down the field, work the middle, and get pressure on Big Ben. They'll have to pound the ball on Pittsburgh and control the clock. Cleveland's defense plays well at Home, and they'll have to defend the run and contain Pittsburgh's receiving core. But more importantly, they'll have to contain Big Ben's playmaking ability outside of the pocket. If the Steelers can effectively balance out the ground game and passing game, and generate turnovers, they'll win. Big Ben usually plays well against Cleveland, and even on their home turf, I don't think the Browns will take advantage of the match ups and move the football at a consistent pace. The Browns at one point were in 1st place, now they're falling and falling. The Steelers are 4-6, playing well on both sides of the ball, and looking to make a playoff push. I've got the Steelers in a low scoring, ugly game.

Prediction: Steelers defeat Browns

Chicago @ St. Louis

- The last time we saw the Rams, their defensive line was dominating the Colts poor offensive line en route to a 38-8 victory. They've got 32 sacks on the season and are extremely successful at getting to the ball and swarming the QB. The Bears offensive line isn't exceptionally strong, so McCown will have to make plays with his feet and avoid pressure. The Rams secondary is beatable, but they only give up 23.4 points per game. McCown has played well in Cutler's absence. He's got an arm and has gotten better and throwing on the run and making plays outside of the pocket. As far as the Rams go on the offensive side of the ball, they've got Tavon Austin and Zac Stacy. For the Rams to produce on offense, it'll have to start with Zac Stacy. He's certainly played well this season and Chicago is 31st in rush yards allowed per game. The Rams are going to exploit this weakness and effectively run the ball to set up the passing game. 

- The Bears will have to control the clock and the offensive line will have to do some work at pass protection. Look at how they destroyed Indianapolis. The Bears O-Line will need to be ready because McCown can't make plays if he's constantly being chased and pressured into bad throws. I think the Bears defense will show up big and Clemens will struggle moving the ball against them. Even on the road, I'll give the nod to the Bears. 

Prediction: Bears defeat Rams

Indianapolis @ Arizona

- The Cardinals have won 5 out of their last 7 games, have the 2nd ranked rush defense in the NFL and are one game back of San Fran for the #6 seed in the NFC. In come the Colts who are 4-1 on the road; 2 blowouts and 2 comeback victories. On paper, the Colts are outmatched. Their offensive line is horrible. Andrew Luck is the most hit and knocked down QB in the league (79 hits), they're defense is inconsistent, and just as they begin to find a pulse with the ground game, they come up against a team that's allowed only 81.4 yards per game on the ground. 

- The Cardinals have flown under the radar for quite some time this season. Palmer and Fitz haven't been lighting it up, but their defense has been playing well, getting sacks and pressure, forcing turnovers, and tie for 2nd with 14 picks on the season. Their offense hasn't wowed anybody, but they're quietly winning games (3 straight W's) and you could argue that they haven't beaten exceptionally strong teams, but they're 6-4 nonetheless. Realistically, the Colts should lose, but here's why I don't think they will.

- The Colts are all about making adjustments, plus they've had 10 days to prepare for these Cardinals. The Colts have allowed 4.4 points per game in the 2nd half in road games, while The Colts have averaged about 17.0 points per game in the 2nd half in road games. These Colts are notorious for starting bad on the road (9.0 ppg in 1st half of road games), but making plays in the second half of the game. They may be down, but once they make those key adjustments, they know how to lock down on defense and start making some plays. We saw it Tennessee down 20-3, and in Houston down 24-6. 

- To win this game, it starts at the line of scrimmage. We saw just how bad of an O-Line the Colts have as they were dismantled by the Rams strong defensive line. The Cardinals defensive line is strong as well. The Colts will have to do a better job at pass protection for Luck and buy him time. You can't expect your QB to make plays when he's flat on his back most of the game. If the Cardinals get off the ball like the Rams did, the Colts offensive line will have a long day. The Cards offense does struggle at times putting up just 21.4 ppg. But against a rather soft Colts secondary, if they get it going, they'll be hard to stop. It'll be a tale of which team shows up. The Colts have beaten Seattle, San Fran, & Denver, but lost to San Diego, Miami, & St. Louis. The Cards will have to make their game on turnovers and pressure on the QB. Luck's receiving core is inconsistent. The Colts have to control the clock and make smart plays. They can't make foolish mistakes against this team in their own stadium and hope to win.

- If the Colts fall behind 20 points, it's tough to say if Luck can bring them back. The kid has a great arm, and succeeds and making plays outside the pocket and on the run. The Cardinals need to take advantage of every opportunity. The lower the score, the more missed opportunities, the better the chance Luck and the Colts make those necessary adjustments and control the 2nd half of the game. I like the Cardinals, but I just have a feeling the Colts might take this one.

Prediction: Colts defeat Cardinals

Tennessee @ Oakland

- The Raiders are 4-6, but they've been quietly been playing solid Football. Matt McGloin came out of nowhere and shocked people with his performance against Houston tossing 3 TD's and 0 INT's against the top ranked defense in the league. The last time we saw Tennessee, they blew a 20-3 lead against Indianapolis and lost 30-27. The Titans defense still plays well, but they aren't consistent at stopping big plays. They're ranked 6th in 3rd down conversions per game, averaging 5.0 conversions on the road and are the best at opposing TD's per game. Fitzpatrick has played well too, despite his team being at 4-6, but the depth of their offense starts with CJ.

- The Raiders don't have that dual threat at QB with Pryor's running ability, but McGloin has the chance to prove last week wasn't just a fluke. Playing at Home with the 4th ranked rushing attack behind him, I think he'll do fine. Tennessee's rushing defense is ranked 21st so running the ball will be a priority for Oakland, setting up the passing attack. Their offense is a tad one dimensional. Their running game may be tops, but who's getting the ball? It'll have to be Streater. Without Moore out, Streater will see most of the balls, and I think Oakland will find a way to move the ball down the field.

- The Titans defense has played well, and their offense has been struggling through the air, averaging 1 passing TD in their last 3 games with a 30% TD percentage in those 3 games. Their running game, however, has averaged 2.3 rushing TD's in their last 3 games making their offense quite one dimensional. If the Raiders defensive line can negate CJ, they can pull out the win. I'll go with the Raiders. 

Prediction: Raiders defeat Titans

Dallas @ NY Giants

- We've got a good one here. The Cowboys/Giants rivalry is becoming a good one as these two teams always have interesting games against each other. Romo and the Cowboys are 1-4 in their last 5 road games against the Giants. That 1 win comes on opening night when the Cowboys beat the defending Super Bowl Champion Giants in Week 1 a couple years ago. The Giants started 0-6, have won 4 in a row and with a win here, they'll be tied for 1st place atop the NFC East. Who woulda thought it? But even I have to admit, the Giants wins came against 3 Third string QB's, and the only starter they beat was Terrelle Pryor and the bulk of their win came from their defense. Now the Giants face a team that's not going to be offensively incompetent and know what they're doing out there. Romo gets Miles Austin back in the offense who adds another deep threat ability to that offense. With Dez, Williams and now Austin back, their offense got a little better. Since 2007, Romo has had a 70% completion percentage in each road game against the Giants, meaning despite being 1-4, he normally does well against them statistically. 

- The Cowboys aren't an elite team themselves, they just finished getting crushed by New Orleans, and had their bye week at a great time. They've had 2 weeks to prepare for this game. Their defensive line can still get pressure and get to the QB, forcing them into bad throws. And for Eli Manning, that's been a theme this season; bad throws, interceptions (leads the league) and poor QB play. Their offense is gradually getting better, but Eli still is inconsistent and the Dallas line will take advantage of that. Both defenses are giving up 25 points per game, so look for some scoring early and often. 

- The Giants obviously need to find ways to get pressure on Romo and make him make bad plays and poor throws and throw him off his rhythm. The Giants need consistent offensive production which means Eli can't throw pick sixes like he's prone to. That defensive line and that secondary is now facing a healthy, and dangerous offense and a QB that's not a 3rd stringer. We'll see how far the Giants have come in that regard. It should be a fun game to watch. With the Giants back in the NFC East hunt and Dallas coming to town, Metlife will be on fire for this one. I would like to say The Giants win on the strength of their defense, but I gonna take the Cowboys for the sweep for the first time since 2007.

Prediction: Cowboys defeat Giants

Denver @ New England

- For the 14th time, it will be Peyton Manning vs Tom Brady. Manning has won 5 of these meetings, Brady has won 8. I won't go into great detail about the Brady/Manning debate. I made a blog post breaking down everything between the two and comparing stats, etc. Be sure to look it up when you have a chance!

- Let's get to the game. I've been looking forward to this one for a while. Last season, Manning and that offense met Brady in Week 7 and still was finding their way and that Patriots defense stepped up and made plays against Manning. Patriots won 31-21, but Tom Brady took apart that defense apart. It was 31-7 at one point. Denver couldn't get back on defense and adjust to the Patriots no huddle fast offense.  This season is a different story. Denver has the top ranked offense in the league averaging well over 30 points per game. Their defense, on the other hand, has been a bit shaky. They have their key players back, but their secondary is still suspect. They've given up over 300 pass yards on the road, but just 184.0 pass yards per game in their last 3 games. Their defense has shown to be exploitable in games like against Dallas, Indianapolis, and at one point against Washington. Their defense will have to be on their game in this one. New England's offense will no doubt utilize that no huddle, quick throws, slants and out patterns and passes over the middle. 

- But how will Denver's offense contend with New England's defense? The Broncos have gotten better and better at using picks on quick slant and crossing patterns to get guys open across the field, eating up chunks of yardage. They've opened up the offense and Demaryius is looking more and more like a top receiver. Wes has emerged as another favorite target of Manning's especially on 3rd down and red zone situations. After all, Denver is the best in the league at red zone percentage and 3rd down conversions. New England's defense can stop the run (ranking 27th overall), giving up 229.2 yards per game, but they've only given up 19.9 points per games. Look at what Peyton Manning did to Kansas City last week. The Patriots secondary can't stop Manning and that receiving core and will have to rely on their defensive line to get some pressure and disrupt Manning's rhythm. They already know not to blitz Manning as he always makes blitzing teams pay. Denver's defense will have to be quick off the ball to get some pressure on Brady. Their pass rush has been inconsistent this season, and that secondary will have to be prepared to defend Gronk, Amendola, and Kenbrell in order to contain this offense. They'll have to defend the short yardage plays. That's New England's bread and butter against a defense like this; short passes and wear them out.

- We're in for another classic between Manning and Brady. As long as the refs don't get in the way and make nonsense calls (the game is in New England) then we're gonna see a good one. The Patriots have averaged almost 5 sacks a game in their last 3 games, Denver has averaged about 3.3. Peyton and that offense will have to exploit those match ups and go for the deep ball often, but utilize those pick plays on slant routes and move down the field. It'll be about which defense shows up. Can Denver's defense contain Brady, and can New England's defense stop Peyton? The game maybe in New England, where the Patriots are undefeated and the home team gets most of the calls, but I'm taking Denver. This isn't last season where they were still figuring out the offense. This offense is a juggernaut.

Prediction: Broncos defeat Patriots

San Francisco @ Washington

- The Redskins have problems upon problem upon problems. They have protection issues, their defense can't seem to stop anybody, giving up 31.1. points per game, but they have the top ranked rushing attack in the league. Even behind the scenes, in the locker room, they have issues. The Niners have their share of problems too, dropping 2 in a row and in danger of falling out of the #6 seed in the NFC with Arizona on their tails. The Niners offense has been very inconsistent, ranking DEAD LAST in passing yards per game over their last 3 games with just 112.7. 

- The Redskins don't have the offensive playmakers to contend with The Niners strong defense. Only way they can come away with the win is control the clock, show the world why they have the top ranked rushing attack, and their defense will have to come up big and make some stops. The Niners offense have to change things up. They need to implement the screen game a little more and less rollouts since Kaep's running ability hasn't caught anybody off guard like last season. Kaep needs to be a pocket passer and limit the running. His arm is strong and with his weapons and that poor Redskins defense, he needs to find ways to make plays.

- The Redskins have locker room problems and are 3-7. They need to play mistake free ball and not turn it over and defend their home turf, but I don't see it happening. The Niners are much stronger and balanced team. I also can't see them losing 3 in a row. 

Prediction: 49ers defeat Redskins

Enjoy The Games!

By: Gerald "Showstopper" Prophete