NFL Week 10 Predictions

Time for another edition of my NFL Picks. We've got a nice lineup here and some very interesting games. Let's not waste time and jump right into these games as I break them down.

Washington @ Minnesota

- The 1 win Vikings almost stole a victory in Dallas, but a clutch drive by Romo won the Cowboys the game. After all they accomplished last season and how well they played, it's all gone downhill for them ever since. Nothing is going right for them and in comes RG3 and the Redskins at 3-5 are right back in the NFC East hunt. The Redskins offensive line hasn't been good all season so the Vikings will have some success getting after RG3, but other than that, they haven't been able to stop anybody. They're 29th in overall defense and against the pass. Adrian Peterson hasn't even hit 1,000 yards rushing on the season yet. This time last year, there were 5-4 and AP was over the 1,000 yard mark. Their QB problem is all over the place, but they're still a solid unit. The Redskins are a better team coming in as the 5th ranked offense in the league with over 400 yards of offense per game and RG3 finally playing to the level he was at last season. He statistically had his best of the game of the season last Sunday against San Diego. The Vikings are in trouble here. RG3 has got that zip on the ball back, the Redskins defense is playing well, and even on the road, on a short week, I'll take the Redskins. The Vikings will keep it close, but the Redskins have a better team and the Vikings aren't all there yet.

Prediction: Redskins defeat Vikings

Seattle @ Atlanta

- A rematch of the divisional game from last postseason. The Falcons are just crumbling. They're struggling on offense without Julio and Roddy, their defense can't force turnovers, and their team overall have just been disappointing. And now comes Seattle at 8-1 surviving a scare against Tampa Bay. Down 21-0, they win in OT 27-24. The Seahawks are now finding ways to win those close games rather than blowing out the competition. Mike James ran for 158 yards on the Seahawks and Glennon played really well. They were playing Seattle Football running the ball down their throats and making consistent plays on offense. It also helped that the Seahawks pass rush was non existent for most of the game. Glennon had time and he extended the play. Even though Ryan is missing his key players on offense, you still can't give him a lot of time in the pocket because he still has that playmaking ability. 

- But here's why the Falcons won't win this game. The jury is still out on whether or not Roddy will play this Sunday, Matt Ryan has thrown 2 TD's to 7 INT's over his last 2 games, and now he's facing a Seattle defense that thrives on physical play, getting after the QB, and forcing turnovers. These corners will jam receivers at the line, get physical, and make it difficult for Matty Ice to find his receivers down the field. Matt Ryan has played well at Home this season (9 TD's, 1 INT) but they'll have to set up a heavy dose of the running attack to keep Seattle's offense on the bench. It's going to be a close one, but everything seems to going wrong for Atlanta and everything is going right for Seattle. Russell Wilson has been playing well, their running game is ranked 5th in the league. If the Falcons were healthy, I'd take them in this game, but the shape they're in now and what Carolina did to them, I can't see them winning this one.

Prediction: Seahawks defeat Falcons

Cincinnati @ Baltimore

- It's clear who's division this is now. The Bengals are 6-3 and in control and now face a team that's horribly struggling on offense. The Ravens can't seem to click with their rhythm and Ray Rice hasn't even been running well this season. They're all sorts of messed up at 3-5. "Top 5" Flacco has been inconsistent and hasn't played up to his contract struggling to make plays in the passing game. The Bengals suffered a loss at Miami last week, but even worse, they lost Geno Atkins, their sack leader for the season. Their defensive line is definitely going to struggle going forward generating pressure and getting sacks. Some guys are going to have step up. Dalton struggled against Miami, but I believe it was just one of those games where Dalton has a rough night, inconsistent and struggling to make plays. 

- But going on the road, against a divisional foe is tough. The Ravens defense is allowing 330+ yards per game and the Bengals come in averaging 380 yards per game. Dalton has an array of weapons to throw to. AJ Green is still his primary receiver, but Marvin Jones has emerged as the clear #2. The Ravens are getting Dallas Clark more and more involved in the offense and he's been stepping. I think he'll be a key player in this game. Clark will have to get open across the middle and make some plays because Flacco can't stay totally dependent on Torrey Smith.

- With Atkins out, the Bengals defensive line are going to struggle to generate some sacks. I believe they'll have some success with pressure and hurrying Flacco into bad throws into coverage. But without Atkins, Flacco will have some time back there to find receivers down the field. With all the receivers Dalton has, the Bengals will have success spreading the field, maybe throw in some crossing patterns, using receiver decoys, using anything to throw the Ravens defense off their game resulting into consistent completions for Dalton. The Bengals have a habit or starting off slow on the road and surging back, but the Ravens have fallen off. If they want to in, they'll have pound the ball and Flacco will have to take his time and make smart throws. The Bengals have the playmakers, and the discipline to get the job done. This is the Bengals division. A win against the defending Super Bowl Champions, sending them to 3-6 in their own building will put a stamp on it.

Prediction: Bengals defeat Ravens

Detroit @ Chicago

- The Chicago Bears won their first game without Jay Cutler last Monday. Albeit, it was against a Packers team with no Aaron Rodgers, but a win nonetheless. McCown played well against Green Bay effectively throwing the ball down field. The Bears were calling quite a lot of passing plays to get McCown more opportunities to find the open and make good throws and he made some great throws in tight windows. And now they come home and face Detroit, tied for first place in the division, coming off an amazing performance against Dallas where Calvin had 329 yards receiving. I don't think he'll have that kind of performance again, but Tillman usually does a good job on him, even though he's got safety help over the top, and Calvin doesn't normally put up huge numbers against the Bears. In the 12 games against the Bears, he's had 100 yards receiving in 2 of them. He only had 44 yards receiving their last meeting in Detroit. 

- I believe Tillman can contain Calvin for the most part, I don't see him getting shut down. Calvin will get his yards and he can used as a decoy in the red zone to get other receivers open. Stafford's got guys like Fauria and Broyles and Pettigrew, but Calvin is their premiere playmaker. Then again, in that game, the Lions forced two fumbles and picked off Cutler three times. Their defense can be effective at getting pressure on the QB, but both teams give up over 350 yards of total offense per game. In Chicago against a Detroit team looking to take command of this division, the Bears will have to be aggressive. Get Forte involved and run the ball down their throat and let McCown make some plays. 

- But I have Detroit in this one. Coming off a bye, Stafford's been playing well, their running game has been explosive this season and the Bears running defense has been terrible. Look at what Lacy did to them last Monday. What did the Bears in last time was turnovers. They need to protect the Football if they hope to win this game. The Lions need to run the ball against the weak run defense and Stafford needs to play efficiently. Against any team, I would say throw it up to Calvin, but not against the Bears. The Lions will have to stop McCown and Forte to win this game. It's hard seeing Detroit coming into Chicago and sweeping the Bears, but I see it happening. The Lions are off a bye and they'll be ready to claim sole first place in the division.

Prediction: Lions defeat Bears

Philadelphia @ Green Bay

- As if the injuries couldn't get worse for the Packers. Losing Cobb, James Jones, and now Aaron Rodgers. The Packers probably wish they kept Vince Young now. No disrespect to Seneca Wallace, but I don't think he can lead this Green Bay team to a win against the Eagles even in Lambeau. The Eagles are only a game back in 1st of their division and Foles is coming off the game of his LIFE. 402 yards passing, 7 TD's, 0 INT's and a perfect QB Rating. I can guarantee that won't happen here. But Foles has been on and off. He had a great game against Tampa, stunk it up against Dallas, and then he does that in Oakland. When Foles gets it going, he's pretty good. The Foles/Cooper combination seems to be working in their favor. 

- Seneca Wallace is an average QB with average passing ability, but poor decision making. All this can get worked on in practice, but it won't be enough. The Packers are going to win this game with rookie running back, Eddie Lacy. Lacy was a BEAST last Monday Night and carried the Packers back and almost made a comeback. If the Eagles are able to shut down Lacy, then Seneca Wallace won't be able to beat them. The Packers prominent game plan needs to involve Eddie Lacy pounding the ball down the Eagles throat. The Packers running game is ranked #2 and the Eagles running game are ranked #3. The Packers, however, are #5 against the run.

- If the Eagles are successful in generating a pass rush and containing Lacy, then they can win this game. Aaron Rodgers makes this offense click, and Seneca doesn't. Not taking anything away from him as a player, but I'm not sure he'll be as successful in the passing game as Packers fans will want him to be. You won't see him making many throws down the field unless his man is wide open, I expect him to throw short, intermediate routes and hand it off to Lacy. Nothing complicated. The Eagles are 4-1 on the road this season and are looking to get back in the NFC East race. Both teams are gonna depend on their Top 5 running attacks to carry them to victory, but it'll ultimately come down to QB play. Green Bay, without Aaron Rodgers, is doomed to lose this one. 

Prediction: Eagles defeat Packers

St. Louis @ Indianapolis

- The Colts are on a roll lately and have been making statement wins this season: blowing out the 49ers in their building, beating previously unbeaten Denver & Seattle, and then battling back from 24-6 to beat Houston in their place 27-24. Their stats aren't eye popping, but they've winning these games with great energy on defense and exceptionally offensive playmaking. They just find a way to win these games. The struggle on offense without Wayne showed early on when their offense just wasn't clicking. Wayne commands so much attention and makes other players around him better. Without that leader on the field, their offense won't click like it should. But now, it seems like T.Y. Hilton has taken over as the playmaker and this kid is special. I saw his ability last season and he's only gotten better. The Colts running game hasn't taken off with Richardson and Bradshaw, but it has with Donald Brown. Brown isn't really a power back, but he can make some plays in the receiving game and can explode in the lanes. 

- The Rams are walking into a tough place to play. Indianapolis' Home crowd is very underrated. The Colts are a different machine when playing in front of their crowd. The Colts defense does play soft coverage at times, but they get decent play from their defensive line with Mathis out there. Clemens will see some success in the passing game, but the Colts have enough on defense to get some pressure and force Clemens into bad throws. The Rams defensive line is also underrated as a unit. They can get after the QB and they've got 29 sacks on the season. The only way St. Louis can slow down Andrew Luck is with success getting to Luck and disrupting his timing because that Colts' offensive line has been bad all season. But they've got to be sure to bring him down. Luck is very efficient throwing on the run. But the Colts are too much at home for St. Louis to handle. Chalk up another win for them.

Prediction: Colts defeat Rams

Oakland @ New York

- The Giants are coming off their bye with two wins on backup Quarterbacks, but wins nonetheless. They're playing against dual threat QB in Pryor. The Giants defense have given up 340 yards a game and just 243 through the air, their running defense is in the bottom 5 of the league, and they've been plagued with injuries. The thing is, I can't see the Giants losing this game. They do give up 100 yards a game on the ground and the Raiders, with the help of Pryor, have the #4 ranked rushing attack, but the Giants seem to have new life now. They don't win pretty, but they make it count. Eli has been bad all season, forcing the issue, inconsistent at making plays and terrible decision making. The Raiders haven't played all that better either. If they come into New York playing the way they played against the Eagles, it'll be a tough day for them. 

- The Raiders have to play to the Giants weakness and that's run the Football. They're ranked 4th for a reason, they can pound that Football with Pryor and Jennings since McFadden is still out. It is no longer inevitable that the Giants are out of the NFC East picture. If they can't stop the Raiders running attack, there's no way they can win. They have to turn Pryor into a pocket passer and nullify his running. Pryor is a good passer, but he needs that running to set it up. The Giants defensive line has been shaky, and Victor Cruz has been dealing with neck problems, but expects to play Sunday. All this points to another Giants loss, but coming off a bye and in front of their Home crowd with the NFC East still in reach, expect them to pull out a solid performance. I'll take the G-Men.

Prediction: Giants defeat Raiders

Buffalo @ Pittsburgh

- The Steelers have been struggling all season long as well. Their two wins come from a last second win against Baltimore and the Jets. The Steelers came off an embarrassing 55-31 whipping allowing 500 total yards, the most in franchise history! So much for that Steel Curtain. The Bills have been fighting and have given opponents a run for their money. They were so close to beating 9-0 Kansas City, but a Pick Six from the Goal Line turned the game around. With E.J. Manuel cleared to play, Buffalo will find a surge in their offensive presence. Manuel was playing some good Football before he went down. He was a solid pocket passer with a big arm, a little inaccurate, but made smart plays. The Bills offense was still clicking in his absence, but Manuel brought something different to the table. With fellow rookie Robert Woods questionable, he'll have to find other answers on the offensive side of the ball.

- Getting back to the game, the Steelers defense is still ranked higher than Buffalo's. The Bills depend on more of the ground game to move the offense and passing when necessary. The Steelers are going to be amped up after letting the Patriots do whatever they wanted to their defense. Their defense is going to come out at Home and try to contain EJ through the air. But Pittsburgh's run defense is ranked 31st which means big day is ahead for Spiller, Jackson, and even EJ. Big Ben will have to be careful with Buffalo's secondary. They still have 12 INT's on the season (Tied for 3rd) and their pass rush is underrated even though the stats don't show it. They're still good at generating pressure and sacks with Mario Williams out there. The Bills won't get blown out, but it'll be close one, but the Steelers have to atone for their embarrassing loss to New England. I think EJ will come out and throw from the pocket and try to not get re-injured, but I see the Steelers playing a more complete game controlling the clock and making smart plays.

Prediction: Steelers defeat Bills

Jacksonville @ Tennessee 

- The way the Jaguars are playing, their first win won't come on the road. They'll most likely get a win in front of their home crowd. Justin Blackmon is in rehab, their offense has been on and off, and going on the road against a Titans team that is still very well alive in the AFC South hunt spells all kinds of trouble. The Titans barely squeaked out a win against the Rams, but they faced a tough defensive front. The Jags defensive front is mediocre, but against a QB like Locker than can extend the play and make plays outside of the pocket, I can't see anyway the Titans win this game. Their defense is pretty solid at getting after the quarterback and forcing turnovers. Chad Henne isn't a bad QB, but he doesn't have a lot to work with in terms of weapons on offense besides Jones-Drew and he isn't even playing at the level he used to be at. It's a divisional game, and they can maybe give the Titans a challenge, but overall it's too much for them to handle. The Titans are averaging 21.6 points per game and the Jags aren't even  averaging 11. In fact, their average is 10.8 ppg. They haven't even scored over 20 points all season. They scored 20 exactly against the Rams, but that's it. I have the Titans. I will say this, I predict the Jaguars get their first win next Sunday when they host Arizona. I'll call that one before anybody else.

Prediction: Titans defeat Jaguars

Carolina @ San Francisco 

- I'm very intrigued to see this one. A possible playoff match between teams who could not be more similar. Kaepernick and Newton are both exceptional runners both have over 200 yards rushing on the season, both teams have a stout running game, impressive playmakers on offense, and an aggressive defense that gets after the QB and generates sacks and turnovers. I would say Cam is a better runner outside of the pocket than Kapernick is. Kaep caught a lot teams off guard last season, but now teams know how to gameplan for his running. Some teams still can't take Cam down. Kaep doesn't have that quick cut to make people miss, sometimes is a little sluggish, too much of a North/South runner. Cam can make people miss, tough to bring down, and has better breakaway speed in my opinion.

- One thing for sure is that The Panthers are 5-3, one game back of the Saints for division lead, and they are FOR REAL. Panthers are 4-0 in their last 4 games outscoring opponents 130-48, tied for 3rd in the NFL for team interceptions this season. Cam Newton in the last 4 games has 7 TD's to only 2 INT's. This team is playing exceptionally well on both sides of the ball. The Niners have come in winners of 5 straight games since being losing to Indy in late September. They've outscored opponents 174-61 in those 5 games and Kapernick has thrown 6 TD's to 1 INT. 

- Where these teams differ is that San Francisco has the top ranked running game in the NFL, Carolina's running is ranked 8th. Carolina has the #2 ranked defense against the run, San Francisco is ranked 12th against the run. The Niners passing attack is DEAD LAST. Don't believe me? Look it up. They average only 189.9 pass yards per game and Carolina's passing defense is Top 10 in the league. Carolina has an 25th ranked passing attack to San Fran's #8 ranked pass defense.

- All this says that it's going a good, defensive struggle. Playing on the road, in Candlestick is tough, but to win this game, Carolina will have to control the clock. Ball movement and balancing between plays is key. The Colts held the ball for 35 minutes to San Fran's 23 minutes in their game. Result? Colts 27, Niners 7. The Panthers have to control the clock, Cam will have to make smart plays and not force the issue and they've got to use Stewart more and spread the ball a lot, utilize picks to get receivers open, and defend Cam Newton. The Niners defensive line as Aldon Smith back and that line can get to the QB in a hurry. Kaepernick has Manningham back giving him another weapon in the offense. The Panthers defensive line have to seal off any lanes for Kaep and their running game. The Niners have the best running attack, and Carolina is 2nd against the run. Something has to give here. I think this is Carolina's breakout game against an Elite NFC Team to show what they're made of. They're going to control the ball, make enough plays, and steal a win on the road. This team is here and this is the game where they put the league on notice. The Niners are still an Elite team, but the Panthers have the team to get this job done.

Prediction: Panthers defeat 49ers

Houston @ Arizona

- Gary Kubiak is expected to return back to his duties in Week 11, as he collapsed at halftime during the Colts/Texans game. Despite their record (2-6) they have the #1 ranked defense overall and against the pass. Only 2 QB's have throw over 200 yards against them (Andrew Luck, Alex Smith) and let's not forget how vicious that defensive line is. With Schaub on the bench along with Yates, it looks like Houston has found their man in Case Keenum. This kid is good. He's got an arm, throws a nice deep ball, accurate on some occasions, and he's just an efficient pocket passer. The Cardinals, however, provide quite a defensive threat. Their secondary has 12 interceptions on the season and their Front 7 has generated 23 sacks on the season. Arizona has had a strong defense for quite a few years now. Their stats may not show it, but they can really get after the QB and play strong in the secondary. 

- Where Arizona lacks is offensive efficiency. They struggle to consistently move the ball. Palmer hasn't looked very well this season throwing 10 TD's to 14 INT's. The Cardinals energy on both sides of the ball are better when they're at Home, against a pass defense like Houston's, Palmer will have his work cut out for him. Only they steal a win is if that defense can stop Case Keenum and Palmer doesn't try to do too much out there. They can't turn the ball over against this Houston team. The Texans have the advantage except for the fact that they're on the road. Keenum's looked impressive and quite effective as a passer. If they can hurry him and and get some sacks, they can capitalize and make some plays offensively, they can surprise them. But I don't see it happening. The Texans are ready to move forward and they know they've got an ace in Keenum. It'll be a close game, but Houston pulls out the W.

Prediction: Texans defeat Cardinals

Denver @ San Diego

- The Broncos are coming off their bye week. The last time we saw, they were down 21-7 to the Redskins and then scored 38 unanswered. The Broncos are 25th in points allowed per game, 30th in passing yards allowed per game. They allowed 522 to Dallas, 446 to Washington, and 334 to Indianapolis. Teams are learning more how to throw against the soft Broncos zone coverage and make plays in the passing game. San Diego HC Mike McCoy spent 4 years with Denver, 3 of them under John Fox. He's going to be prepared for all the little things that make the Broncos passing game click. He's seen the tape of how the Broncos love to use little picks on bunch formations inside the red zone to free up Welker for an easy TD. But preparing for it and facing it are two different things entirely. The Broncos have the best offense in the NFL. They know how to spread the ball, get receivers open and Moreno has emerged as their star running back with his tough running. 

- The Chargers on the other hand, lack defensive presence. They can no doubt score on offense. Despite his team being 4-4, Rivers has the highest completion percentage in the league with 72.2. And against a weak pass defense like Denver, he'll have his way throwing the ball down the field unless Denver's defensive line has gotten better over the bye week getting to the Quarterback. The Broncos, as a team, is better by leaps and bounds, but the difference will be in Coaching and play execution. The Chargers have the playmakers on offense. Keenan Allen emerged as a star all across the field with Eddie Royal as a red zone threat and Danny Woodhead making plays in the slot. But without consistent pressure from Denver's Front 7 forcing Rivers into bad throws. Their offensive line has allowed 12 sacks on the season and allowing Rivers to get hit 22 times. 

- If the Chargers are gonna win this game, they're gonna have to do a masterful job protecting Rivers allowing him to find Allen, Gates, and Royal down the field. The Broncos have started slow as in their last few games, but come roaring back. Their offense is a juggernaut that is difficult to stop. The Chargers defense will have to be prepared for Denver's fast offense and balanced attack. The last time Denver played in San Diego, remember what happened? San Diego saw a 24-0 lead vanish and lost 35-24. The Broncos are the top team in the league. San Diego will have their work cut out for them, for Denver gets the job done.

Prediction: Broncos defeat Chargers

Dallas @ New Orleans

- The last time Dallas played in New Orleans, The Saints were 13-0 and the Cowboys handed them their first loss, 24-17. In a battle of division leaders, the Saints are coming off a stunning loss to the Jets and the Cowboys went down to the wire and defeated the Vikings. The Saints have Sean Payton back and they're 6-2, and like the Cowboys, have a 1 game lead in the division. The Super Dome is a tough place to play, but this is the time of year where Romo plays his best Football, in November. I want to make a case that the Cowboys can come in here and pull off that upset. Remember in 2009 when people were saying the exact same thing they're saying now? The Dallas would get stomped and all that other stuff and Dallas came in took a 17-3 lead, but let's not live in the past.

- Rob Ryan has rejuvenated this Saints defense making them 5th in pass defense allowing just 211.9 yards per game. Their defensive line is better, but where they lack is how The Jets beat them last week, by running the ball and setting up . Dallas has to work on ball control and clock management. They've got to run the ball down New Orleans throat. Their rushing defense is ranked in the bottom half of the league. Set up the play action pass plays with some power running. They've got to be aggressive offensively to contend with the aggressive Saints secondary. The Cowboys offensive line hasn't been the best, but they've got to be on their game and protect Romo. That Saints defensive line can get to the QB in a hurry and force some bad throws and throw off the passing rhythm. 

- The Dallas defensive line needs to be prepared. Demarcus Ware coming back gives them a boost on the defensive side of the ball at rushing the passer. Their secondary is 31st in the league and they'll have to rely on their pass rush to hurry Brees and force him into bad throws. You can't let Brees have a lot of time in the pocket or he'll torch that weak secondary and he's got the weapons to do it. They love those screen passes, routes over the middle to get their receivers and any play that involves getting Jimmy Graham the Football, as he's been a Beast this season. Darren Sproles is questionable, and without him in the offense, those little screen plays they run won't be as explosive without Sproles breakaway speed.

- The Saints haven't lost in the SuperDome yet and with Rob Ryan having that defense playing out their mind, they're gonna cause havoc on Dallas' poor offensive line. But I like the Cowboys in this one. I think people are underestimating The Cowboys in this one. It'll come down to whether or not their defense can stop Brees and with Demarcus back in the lineup, they just have to contain him and generate some sacks and turnovers. Romo plays his best Football in November, and I really think that if Dallas can control the clock, run the ball effectively, and Romo doesn't turn the ball over, the Cowboys can pull out a win. The Saints will get theirs, but I just have a feeling that Dallas is going to come in and steal a win here. 

Prediction: Cowboys defeat Saints

Miami @ Tampa Bay

- The Bucs are coming off probably their best performance all season against Seattle. They couldn't close it out, but they looked good. They ran the ball effectively and Glennon played well. It turns out that everything just isn't going their way. Miami, on the other hand, finally got a win after losing 4 straight by upsetting Cincinnati. Going on the road against a solid Tampa defense is a tough test. The stats don't show it, but their defense plays well. They're ranked 17th to Miami's 23rd and both teams offensive ranks are in the bottom 5 in the NFL. But both teams play good defense. Stats say it'll be a shootout, but this is why we play the games. I think it'll be a low scoring game with offenses struggling at first. I think Tannehill will produce better numbers than Glennon. Tampa has the better rushing attack as Mike James can only get better after his performance in Seattle. It'll come down to which offense can consistently move the ball. The Bucs will have to stay consistent with the ground game and Glennon will have to make smart plays. The Dolphins have to open the playbook and get receivers open and their defensive front needs to get some pressure and get after Glennon. But I think Miami will succeed in the passing game and make some plays on the defensive side. Nothing seems to be working for the Bucs and the Dolphins are trying to get back into the playoff swing.

Prediction: Dolphins defeat Buccaneers 

Enjoy The Games!


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By: Gerald "Showstopper" Prophete