Ok, I didn't do too good with the Wild Card picks (1-3), even though two of them could've easily gone the other way. But I put too much stock in the fact that the Saints had 0 wins in road playoff games and the fact that Green Bay had the Homefield advantage.
But this time, it's Divisional Weekend. Chock full of 3 rematches from the regular season and another Colts/Patriots matchup, this time featuring Tom Brady vs Andrew Luck.
4 great games to go through. Let's dive right in!
New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks
Saturday, 4:35 p.m., FOX
The last two meetings between these two teams didn't end very well for the Saints. They were one and done out of the playoffs by a 7-9 Seattle team, and then there's the Monday Night game where Seattle absolutely obliterated New Orleans 34-7. The reason being is that Seattle is physical and New Orleans is more finesse, and physicality beats out finesse every single time. This time around the Saints are people's favorite to knock out Seattle. Because let's be honest. The #1 seed in the NFC hasn't been very lucky in the last few seasons. Over the last 6 seasons in the playoffs, the #1 seed in the NFC has been one-and-done 4 out those 6 times. The teams to avoid that fate were the Saints in 2009 and the Falcons last season. Also, the #1 seed is 2-5 against the #6 seed in the last 7 seasons.
But let's get to the game. In my opinion, the only way New Orleans can win this game is to control the clock and run the ball extremely well controlling the line of scrimmage. The noise is going be a HUGE factor because it's distracting and messes with the play calling, but if the Saints can control the clock, run the ball and keep Seattle's offense on the bench, they have a shot at winning. The Seahawks have the #1 ranked defense in total yards allowed and against the pass, and they have a #7 ranked rush defense. All across the board, Seattle is physical, hard hitting, great rushing the passer, disrupting rhythm, and defending the pass. They haven't allowed a lot of big plays this season, but the Saints are on a mission. They need to get the running game going like they did against Philly and control the clock. I'm not so sure it's a good idea to attack the air early and often. Establish the running game with Ingram, get Sproles involved in the screen game and impose your will early.
The Saints defense did a good job against the Eagles offense, but this Seattle offense is another beast. The Seahawks offense is averaging almost 30 points per game at Home. Their offense finds ways to put up the points. Russell Wilson is dynamic with his play making ability, his ball release is smooth and gets better each game, and he's so good at finding the open man and throwing on the run. The kid is talented on so many levels. The Saints have the #5 ranked defense, but the last time these teams played, the Seahawks offense made it look easy. Not so sure, it'll be easy this time around. What I don't trust is can Seattle's offense be consistent. They've got the weapons on offense; Kearse has stepped in as a viable deep threat since Rice went down, Miller, Tate, Percy Harvin has been rumored to return, and of course Marshawn Lynch. They need to establish a rhythm early. They can keep stalling, or going 3 & Out. Once the Saints get the momentum, it'll be damn near impossible to get it back.
I don't think it'll be a blowout this time around, but I wouldn't be so surprised if a blowout did actually happen. The Saints need to establish the running game. Run the ball well, control the clock, and Brees has to go to work and play mistake free ball and not leave points on the board. The Seahawks have a habit now of starting slow. You can't start slow if the Saints establish a rhythm early or else the game will already be over. Bottom line, the Saints can't go finesse. They need to play physical against an even more physical Seattle Seahawks team. But at the end of the day, the crowd noise will be a factor and I believe Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch, and Co. will find a way to get it done. But I'll say this, it's hard to get the best of Sean Payton twice.
Prediction: Seahawks defeat Saints
Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots
Saturday, 8:15 p.m., CBS
Such an intriguing game. Once again the Colts and the Patriots meet in the playoffs. This time, it's Andrew Luck vs Tom Brady. There's been a lot said in the media about how Brady didn't even watch the Colts amazing comeback victory over the Chiefs, or that Brady isn't worried about Luck. Well, I'll say this; they should be worried.
They should be worried that the Colts defensive line is furious, physical, and can really rush the passer. They should be worried that the Colts play their best Football when they're playing from behind, and even when the Colts fall behind 14+, the game isn't over until the clock reads 0.
They should be worried that Brady's deep threats are unreliable and the Colts can play single coverage and lock up, while only having to worry about Edleman, and limiting Brady's options makes their passing attack inconsistent.
They should be worried that Luck is a very mobile QB, has a knack for knowing when to run to pick the yardage and making smart plays.
They should be worried that the Colts now have 3 deep threats; Hilton, Rogers, and now Deion Branch. Giving Luck a veteran receiver will be a key addition to making the Colts passing attack tough to stop.
They should also be worried that the Colts have what it takes to pull off the upset.
The Patriots are going to do what they like to do best. They're going to run those check down plays, those quick slants and out routes to wear down the Colts defense. I'm not too sold on the Pats ability to throw it deep. Thompkins and Dobson have missed a good portion of the season, and will take a while to get back into the swing of things. Even healthy, I'm still not ready to trust Amendola, so it'll be interesting to see him perform. The Patriots have two dangerous weapons; Edleman and Blount. Edleman has been a dangerous weapon in the slot game with his speed and ability to get separation. Blount has been an exceptional power runner hitting those holes, getting physical with defenders and picking up that yardage. The Pats don't have Gronk. If they did, I believe this would be an open and shut case, because as much as I love the Colts, they wouldn't have had an answer to stop him. The Pats offense will literally dink and dunk the Colts defense to death and occasionally work the middle.
I believe the Colts defense can contain this offense. They will need to play physical defense. That bend, don't break mentality isn't going to work against this team up in Foxboro. They need to get physical with the receivers, disrupt Brady's rhythm and force him into bad throws. Likewise with the Pats defense against Luck. At Home, the Pats thrive on that defensive line getting consistent pressure, making the QB make some bad throws, and generating sacks. Their pass defense isn't elite, but the thing about this defense is that when it's time to make a key stop, they step up and make that stop.
It'll come down to whether or not Luck and the offense can keep up with the Patriots offense. The Colts defense needs to get to Brady often and early because if the Pats just run the ball and dink and dunk them to death, the score will be 14-0 before you can blink. The Colts offense need to establish consistent rhythm and not get into a position where the Pats defense has them reeling. I believe the Colts defense will make those key stops late in the game. I believe the Colts are being severely underlooked heading into this game and will shock the world. I've got the Colts in this one.
Prediction: Colts defeat Patriots
San Francisco 49ers @ Carolina Panthers
Sunday, 1:05 p.m., FOX
This might be the most physical match of the weekend. The last meeting between these two? A 10-9 victory by Carolina over Kaepernick. You can argue that Crabtree and Davis were injured and that Kaep's poor performance was because of that, but no, Carolina's defense came to play that day and shut down Kaepernick's running ability and only limited him to 91 yards passing.
From what I've seen and heard, Carolina has been talked about the least. People are saying Carolina's not ready and San Fran is gonna breeze right through them. I think people are underestimating Carolina's defense and especially that offense. Carolina is #2 in opponents points per game (15.1), the #2 ranked defense in the league, and #2 rush defense. Their defensive line is probably the best in the league right behind Seattle, if not, better than Seattle. Their speed off the edge, the way they swarm the ball, and cause turnovers is scary. They had 20 INT's at Home and led the league in sacks with 60. That defense is on another level. It's going to be tough for the Niners to establish the running game, and creating running lanes to get Gore going. The Niners will have to impose their will through the air. Get Crabtree going early because I think he can cause some problems for Carolina's secondary like he did against Green Bay. They need to get Davis going across the middle and do more to get Boldin the ball. He only had 23 yards receiving in the last match. But that offensive line will have to give Kaep the proper time in the pocket.
Now, we get to what can make or break the game for Carolina; their offense. The Niners defense is ranked #5, #7 against the pass, and #4 against the rush. Will Steve Smith be healthy enough, and how will Ginn, Lafell, and Olsen match up against the physical Niners defense. And then there's Cam. Cam is dangerous in and out of the pocket. Compared to Kaepernick, Cam has more shiftiness and is a better pocket passer than Kaep. It'll be harder for the Niners defense to take down Cam, than it would be for Carolina's defense to contain Kaepernick. Cam's got one hell of an arm. When it comes down to it, I can see Cam making those razor sharp throws, throwing lasers and moving the chains. But how consistent can the offense be? The Niners pass defense has been known to susceptible to the big play ball themselves, but I don't see the Carolina offense being consistent when it comes to ball movement, running the ball, or controlling the clock.
This is going to be a physical low scoring game between two defensive teams. I expect to see multiple defensive stops, 3 & outs, etc. It'll come down to which offense can make that big play to turn the game around. The Niners are 7-2 in their last 9 games, one of those losses coming from the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers defense is more physical, and more hard hitting that San Francisco has been this season. I don't think Kaepernick can consistently produce against this Panthers defense, but I can see Cam doing what Kaep can't; consistently use his feet to make plays outside of the pocket and connect on the throws when they count. Neither team will be able to get a running game going, so it will fall on the shoulders of the defense and both QB's to get it done. I'm taking the more physical squad to take this one. I've got Carolina.
Prediction: Panthers defeat 49ers
San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos
Sunday, 4:40 p.m., CBS
Ever since the Chargers won their game, all people have said are how the Chargers are going to play once they get to the AFC Championship. Not if, but when Peyton Manning chokes, how his legacy will be remembered. These people are taking Denver out of the equation before the game has even been played. It's clear the Chargers have a psychological edge over Peyton Manning. The Chargers are 2-0 against Peyton in the playoffs, and then factor in when they went up to Denver and beat them earlier on in the season.
The formula is there to stopping Denver. Control the clock, run the ball, and pressure the hell out of Peyton Manning. This is what San Diego did in their last meeting. Ryan Matthews had a great game running the ball, the Chargers were eating up chunks and chunks of the clock on some drives, keeping Peyton Manning and that offense off the field and they took advantage of the lack of pass defense and made plays to win that game. This is how they have to attack Denver this time around. There's almost no pass rush in Denver and when you give Rivers time in the pocket, he's going to find those receivers because Denver's pass defense isn't very good either. Keenan Allen has to show up and make plays, Green, Woodhead, Gates, Ryan Matthews has to have a big game. Chargers need to wear out the left side of the Denver's defense like they did last time.
But what it really comes down to is whether or not San Diego's defense can stop Peyton Manning. They sure as hell exposed Andy Dalton and made him look like he didn't belong anywhere near a playoff game. They pressured him constantly, Dalton was making bad throws left and right. Denver needs to control the line of scrimmage. They've got to give Peyton Manning time in the pocket. When Peyton has the time, it's easy pickings; Demaryius, Decker, Julius, Tamme, Caldwell, Welker is coming back, and you have Knowshon Moreno running the ball as well as he has been this season. Can San Diego's defense stop the onslaught of Denver's offense? They did last time, but if they really think Denver is going to perform the way they did last time, they're out of luck. They love running pick plays in those bunch sets to get their guys open. Demaryius is hard to stop one-on-one, Decker has emerged as a dangerous #2 and with Welker back in the slot, he's a tough matchup for anybody.
The San Diego Chargers have a psychological edge and almost everybody is counting on the fact that Peyton Manning will choke and will go one-and-done again. But Peyton Manning is coming off probably the greatest regular season for any QB in the NFL History. I don't think he's ready to go home just yet. I don't like San Diego's chances. Denver's offense is too much for San Diego to handle, but Denver's defense will also have a hard time stopping Rivers if they can't get any consistent pass rush. Regardless of all the negative talk about Denver, that'll only give them enough to use it to their advantage. Broncos move on to host the AFC Championship Game.
Prediction: Broncos defeat Chargers
Enjoy The Games!
By: Gerald "Showstopper" Prophete
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