NFL Week 16 Predictions

Week 16 has always been a HUGE week in the NFL. We've got 4 teams fighting for the AFC #6 seed, the NFC North and NFC East looks like it'll come down to Week 17, the NFC South is still wide open, Homefield isn't clinched in the AFC, the last game at Candlestick Park is being played, etc. So many story lines heading into this week. Let's get you ready with my picks for the games.

Miami @ Buffalo

- Miami had a HUGE win last week knocking off Brady and The Patriots and they find themselves in still in a tight battle for the #6 seed with Baltimore and San Diego. Miami already lost to Buffalo earlier in the season with Thad Lewis at QB. EJ Manuel is being benched for this game because apparently Thad is best suited to beat this team.  But Miami is coming and feeling pretty damn good about themselves.

- For starters, they already own the tiebreaker over San Diego, but they have to hope Baltimore drops their last two games. They're coming in playing solid defense, getting to the passer, and containing the opposing offense. But what's really boosted them is the play of the offense. The defense has played well, but the offense has been playing even better. Tannehill's thrown 8 TD's to 2 INT's over the last 3 games and maintained a completion% of 60, or better. Hartline has stepped up in the offense, Clay had made some noise, Wallace has been consistent, and their running game has averaged over a 130 yards in their last 3 games. Bottom line, they're playing good Football.

- Only problem is, they're playing up in Buffalo. A tough place to win indeed. All but 1 of the Bills Home games have been decided by 3 points, or fewer. It's tough to put this team away. Their defensive line is quietly pretty solid, they're running game is explosive. But Buffalo has given up over 150 yards on the ground and pretty good when it comes to pass defense. Miami wins this game by controlling the clock and utilizing the running game often and early. I think Tannehill will struggle at first, but they'll be able to move the ball on Buffalo. Buffalo is looking to play spoiler, but Miami has come too far to be stopped now. I'll take the Dolphins.

Prediction: Dolphins defeat Bills

New Orleans @ Carolina 

- The last time these teams played, New Orleans tore apart Carolina's defense and put 31 on them. Which is understandable cause Brees and Co. average over 30 at Home. But now, they come on the road to Carolina. The Saints have not played well on the road this season (3-5). Look at what the Rams defensive line did to that offense. They basically shut them out the whole game with the Saints managing to put up 9 points and a garbage TD in the 4th. But now, going on the road to Carolina to a defense that is hungry and wants payback for that embarrassing showing in New Orleans, Brees will have a hard time. 

- Carolina will need to take notes from what the Rams did. The Rams pass rush had Brees throwing wild passes all game along and putting the running game damn near out of commission. The Panthers pass rush, along with a lack of offense, is what did them in last time. Carolina's defensive line has got to bring the heat on Brees, and force him into those wild passes. But on the other side of the ball, Carolina needs to mount some offense. They were getting blown out by New Orleans 31-6 and managed to score a garbage time TD. Their offense was off all night, and the Saints defense was playing really well. Some screen plays would be helpful and throwing the ball down the field and being aggressive is a top priority as well. 

- For the Saints, it's amazing how different of a team New Orleans is away from the Super Dome. Their offense will struggle to move the ball against the Panthers defense because their energy at Home will turned up and they're gonna fly around the ball and get to the passer. I'm not sure if those little screen plays New Orleans loves to do will be much effective. New Orleans will need to come up with new schemes to get their guys open. Brees will have to work the middle like he loves to do and get Jimmy Graham going early. If the Saints can stay consistent on offense, I believe they can walk away with W here.

- But it'll come down it the Saints pass rush can repeat their performance in their last meeting and get all over Cam, which I don't think will happen this time around. The Panthers are 9-1 over their last 10 games and are looking to keep that push going and clinch a playoff spot. The Saints may have won in New Orleans, but Brees is 8-8 all time vs the Panthers and 4-3 @ Carolina. But at Home, I've got Carolina.

Prediction: Panthers defeat Saints

Minnesota @ Cincinnati

- This is a much bigger game than people believe. The Bengals are hanging onto the division lead by a thread. It's still possible that the Ravens can still win the division. But luckily for the Bengals, this game is at Home, a place where they're undefeated, averaging 2.3 turnovers a game, 33.2 points per game, and outscoring opponents 199-103. The Vikings come in after dismantling the Eagles and putting 48 on them without Peterson & Gerhart. Cassel has proven to be the best Vikings QB right now at making plays, throwing the deep ball and putting up points. Matt Asiata has stepped in and had a good game scoring 3 TD's. This Vikings team may have the 2nd worst defense in the league, but they do play a lot of teams tough. I don't think they'll win this game, but I think they'll keep it close for a little bit.

- The Bengals offense has been very stout at Home, with most of their scores coming off turnovers returned for TD's, but Dalton has played well and thrown 14 TD's to 4 INT's at Home. Bernard has been a big boost to the running with his playmaking, shifty movement, explosiveness in the open field and his ability to make people miss. The Bengals have enough firepower on offense to move the ball and put up points on the Vikings. The defense will have their hands full against a Vikings team with nothing to lose and playing freely, but at the end of the day, I'm taking the Undefeated Home Team.

Prediction: Bengals defeat Vikings

Denver @ Houston

- Despite their record, Houston still has the 4th ranked defense in the league, and the 2nd ranked pass defense in the league. But they've given up over 200 yards through the air in their last 3 games. Let's be honest, Houston has been a mess this season. QB Battle, Schaub & Andre arguing, Kubiak firing, and let's not forget their 2-12 record. And in comes Denver, a team that is averaging almost 37 points per game ON THE ROAD. Peyton Manning is 4 TD's away from not only retaking his Single Season TD record, but breaking it and going above and beyond it. He's got 47 TD's with 2 games left to play. 

- The only thing holding Denver back is that secondary. They've allowed teams to score almost 30 per game on them and giving over 350 yards of total offense. Keenum has played especially well in Schaub's absence. His deep ball is impressive, he's got a strong arm, doesn't hold onto the ball too long, makes good decisions, and can extend the play to find the open man. But against this team, it'll be interesting to see how he plays against them. Denver's pass defense may be suspect, but their pass rush has been decent. They can swarm the ball and force turnovers. 

- I don't think Houston's defense can match up against Denver's playmakers. The only way to beat Denver is to pressure Manning into bad throws and control the clock against them. The Colts and Chargers did this exceptionally well. They pressured Manning and they had long drives that kept Manning on the bench. They took advantage of every opportunity and of the match ups on defense. But Houston only has JJ Watt and they may pressure Manning early, but I don't think they can do it consistently. Denver has just too much offense. Texans will put up the points, but I'm taking the Broncos. 

- Also, on a side note, I predict Peyton Manning will have 3 TD's in this game giving 50 TD's on the season and he'll break the record once again, next week against Oakland.

Prediction: Broncos defeat Texans

Tennessee @ Jacksonville

- The Titans will get swept. I'll call this right now. I've said before The Jaguars have been gradually getting better. The Titans have been inconsistent all season long. Their defense has been solid, and their offense has struggled on one occasion or another to run the ball, barely averaging 100 yards in their last 3 games, where as the Jags have averaged over 140 yards on the ground in their last 3 games. The Jags struggled against the Bills in the turnover department, but they've still won 4 out of their last 6 games. The Titans can move the ball on the Jags because of that poor defense. The Jags in turn will be able to move the ball on the Titans. The Jags running game needs to get going early. But all in all, the Titans have a better team on paper, but if there's one team the Jags have had consistent success against, it's Tennessee. And the Jags are playing better at Home lately. Playing good defense, running the ball well, and putting up points. The Jags will sweep the Titans.

Prediction: Jaguars defeat Titans

Indianapolis @ Kansas City 

- The Colts have already locked up the division and I don't think they'll get as high as the #4 seed. But now it's been T.Y. Hilton is dealing with injuries. With a playoff spot already locked up, it'd be wise to rest him this week and play him sparingly in Week 17. That deals quite a blow to their offense. The only consistent receiver they have now is Fleener. I'm sure Luck can spread the ball around and give guys like Whalen, Rogers, and Brazil chances to make plays. Their running game has averaged 106.3 yards in their last 3 games. Trent Richardson has one solid game, but let's not get carried away. Donald Brown is still the premiere back running well in that system. Luck has been playing well, despite having one of the worst offensive lines in the league. He had a 4 TD day in Cincinnati, and played well moving the ball against Houston. 

- But, IN Kansas City, you would think they bring him down to Earth. Ever since their first encounter with Peyton Manning, the Chiefs have gone from a team that relies on their defense making turnovers and closing out games for them to a team that's been averaging over 40 points in their last 3 games, and allowing 25.3 points per game. They've made quite a 360 over the last few games. Alex Smith is having multiple TD games, and showing he's not just a game manager. He had 5 TD's against Oakland last week. Justin Houston still isn't back yet, and the Chief's pass rush won't be as ferocious until he gets back, but against that Colts offensive line, it won't be hard at all to get to the QB. The Colts defense have given up some big plays, but even if Smith has an off day, there's always Jamaal Charles. The Colts have given up well over 100 yards on offense and when Jamaal Charles gets the ball, the Colts will have trouble containing him, and taking him down. 

- Pass protection will have to be key for the Colts because if Luck gets time, he can make plays. The Chiefs have given up over 300 pass yards in their last 3 games, so their pass defense isn't that great. But in Kansas City, against an offense that's putting up the points they have, and as bad as the Colts offensive line has been, I don't know if the Colts can get it done. It won't be a blowout, the Colts will keep it close, but I've got the Chiefs taking this one. But rest assured, if the playoffs ended today, the Colts and Chiefs would meet again in the playoffs, and I've got the Colts pulling the upset in the playoffs. The Chiefs will win this game though.

Prediction: Chiefs defeat Colts

Cleveland @ New York

- Don't underestimate the Cleveland Browns. Their defense is flying under the radar and that's what can win this game for them. I don't have much faith in the Browns offense. They can't run the ball, and the Jets have the best rushing defense in the AFC. So, screen passes will be a key for them to use. Their offense begins and ends with Josh Gordon, a guy who's leading the league in receptions and receptions yards. Cromartie isn't the answer for him. The Jets may have a solid defensive line, but their pass defense is suspect and I don't think they'll have an answer for Josh Gordon. They just have to focus on putting the pressure on Campbell. He's been playing well for the most part since Hoyer went down and Wheeden disappointed. But, he lacks pocket presence. Get some pressure on him and he'll falter, and maybe even fumble. 

- The Jets play better at Home. I'll put it at that. They've had a few stinkers, but they're a better Home team. But how will they do against the Browns? The Browns are ranked 8th in total defense, and against the run. They love playing tight coverage, and forcing pressure. Their defense has played really well and forced 2 turnovers per game. But what it all comes down to is whether or not the Jets can contain Josh Gordon. If they can't the game's already over. The Jets have to focus on running the game, because they don't have any consistent receivers for Geno to move the ball with. Except Santonio. As good as I think the Browns and they have a shot at beating Gang Green, something always happens at the end of games and they end losing. I'll take the Jets by a very small margin.

Prediction: Jets defeat Browns

Tampa Bay @ St. Louis

- Talk about a defensive standoff. The Bucs defense has been solid at slowing down the running game and haven't given up a lot of big plays. But at Home, that Rams defensive line is absolutely nasty. They're averaging almost 3 sacks and 2 forced fumbles per game with 24 sacks in their home building. They've been playing well at getting to the passer, collapsing the pocket, and hurrying the QB into bad throws. Despite how well Glennon has played, The Bucs have the worst offense in the league, ranking 32nd in total yards per game, averaging 18.4 points per game. Their running hasn't gone over 100 yards in their last 3 games. What can win them this game is good defense. But the Rams have even been playing well on offense. Tavon may still be out, but Clemens has been managing the game quite well and as long as Zac Stacy keeps running the ball the way he has been, the Rams shouldn't lose. If they keep consisted pressure on Glennon, and not let him get the ball to Vincent Jackson, or Tiquan Underwood, I see no way the Rams lose. The Rams are 4-3 at Home. The Bucs on the road? 1-5.

Prediction: Rams defeat Buccaneers

Dallas @ Washington

- The Cowboys collapse is continuing. Look what the Bears & Saints did to them. Blowing them right out of the arena. And then being up 26-3 on Green Bay, and then getting outscored 34-10 the rest of the way with no Aaron Rodgers. Romo isn't devoid of all the blame, but that entire Cowboys team has been bad. Their offense has been inconsistent and that defense has been god awful. They're the worst defense in the league, allowing well over 400 yards of offense per game. And Philadelphia is well on their way to capturing the division.

- The Redskins haven't been playing any better. Look at what's happened to them over the last few games. They only have 3 wins on the season, and despite some of the scores, they were blown out 6 times this season by 30 points or more. One of those games were against the Cowboys. As bad as the Cowboys have looked, giving up 400 yards of offense in their last 3 games, they've been scoring 31.7 points per game. The Redskins have given up 32 points per game in their last 3. 

- Bottom line, the Redskins can't match up against the Cowboys. Even with Kirk Cousins out there, they'll be able to move the ball on Dallas, but they can't be consistent with it. Romo and that offense need to get it together. The division is still within reach, but they need to win this game. They need to run the ball, and if they get up big, not abandon the ground game for the sake of running up the score. When it comes down to it, both teams can't play defense, both teams offenses are struggling, and the only strength comes from the ground game. I'm taking Dallas because the Redskins are just a weaker team and Dallas needs this game more than anything. 

Prediction: Cowboys defeat Redskins

NY Giants @ Detroit

- The Lions were in firm control of the NFC North. But now, things have taken a turn for the worse. Detroit has dropped 4 of their last 6, while Chicago has won 3 of their last 6, opening the door for the NFC North lead. So, now the Lions NEED this win to take the division lead back. And against the Giants, it shouldn't be a problem.

- The only thing that can hold the Lions back is themselves, and I'm talking about poor ball control, dropped passes, and not taking advantage of scoring opportunities. But the Giants have pretty much called it season. They were shut out by Seattle last week, and they're facing a better offense, that's 9th in points per game, and the #3 ranked offense in the NFL. What have the Giants done against competent offensive teams whose QB's weren't backups? They were blown out of the building. They have a 10th ranked defense, but they're giving up 25.5 points per game, and over 130 rushing yards in their last 3 games. And Detroit will take advantage and run the ball prominently and attack the Giants secondary with Megatron, Burleson, Pettigrew, Durham, Fauria, etc. 

- The only way the Giants even have a chance at stealing this one is by forcing turnovers, containing that Detroit offense, and protecting the ball themselves. And the way Eli and that offense has been playing, it's doubtful. The Giants won't get shut out again, but they're not gonna go to Detroit and beat them. Not with that team.

Prediction: Lions defeat Giants

Arizona @ Seattle

- Remember last season when The Seahawks absolutely annihilated the Cardinals 58-0? I don't think that same thing will happen this time around. The Cardinals defense has been solid all season long and their offense has put up the points with Palmer playing well. The Cardinals have the best rush defense in the NFL, but how are they in the secondary? Ranked 17th, and the Seahawks are averaging almost 32.7 points at Home, but have the 24th ranked pass defense in the league. But up in Seattle, all that doesn't matter. On more than one occasion, their offense has looked like a juggernaut, incapable of being slowed down. Their running game has averaged well over 100 yards in their building as well. 

- How can the Cardinals keep up? They can start by making sure that Front 7 is honed in on the running and game and work on slowing down the Beast Mode. They have account for Russell Wilson's dynamic playmaking ability inside and outside the pocket. Their offense will have maintain some consistent ball movement against the top defense in the league in total yards and pass yards. Palmer has played well, but with Fitz injuried, but still hoping to play, their offense will struggle. It's going to take a monumental effort on both sides of the ball to knock off Seattle in their Home building. No team has been able to do it last season and this season. Arizona won't be that team.

Prediction: Seahawks defeat Cardinals

New England @ Baltimore

- How far can The Patriots go when their best playmaker on the field is Julian Edleman? No Gronk, Amendola has been inconsistent and they're trying to get Collie into the offense with Dobson and Thompkins questionable for this game. Look at how the Patriots struggled on offense without Gronk's presence. Brady was inaccurate, throwing wild passes, and receivers weren't getting consistent separation. They'll need to implement their running backs into the receiving game with some screen passes. But Baltimore's defense has gotten better at coverage plays, rushing the QB to disrupt the offense, but they still lead the league in giving up the big play. If Dobson and Thompkins come back, the Patriots will have their deep threats back rather than relying on Edleman getting separation across the middle.

- Flacco and this Ravens team have come a long away compared to how they started the season. Flacco slowly got his playmakers on offense back. Jacoby came back providing speed on offense and a boost to their return game. And then Pitta, who has Flacco's favorite target, came back to give some stability to that offense and give Flacco somebody to throw to on 3rd downs, or when the play breaks down. Their running game still hasn't reached the potential they wanted, but they're only running the ball 40% of the time. With Talib possibly containing Torrey, it'll up to Jacoby and Pitta to get separation. I'm pretty sure Flacco will attack that secondary down the field and give Torrey a chance. The Patriots secondary is suspect, but when it comes time to make key stop, they make those key stops. 

- It'll come down to the weapons Brady has at his disposal. You can't get too dependable on Edleman and Amendola as big play receivers. The Ravens will take them out of the game, and make Brady use other options. With Dobson and Thompkins, he'll be able to stretch the field and move the ball consistently. But at Home, I think the Ravens will move the ball, produce consistent offense, force Brady into inaccurate throws and slightly edge them out. 

Prediction: Ravens defeat Patriots

Pittsburgh @ Green Bay

- Rodgers looked sharp in practice, but we WON'T play against Pittsburgh. If there was ever a time, Green Bay really need a win, it's this Sunday against the Steelers. The NFC North is now open with Detroit dropping its last 2 games and the Bears winning two in a row. The Packers need this win to stay in the race, but without Rodgers, it'll be tough to see Green Bay knocking off the Steelers. This isn't the Cowboys defense. I will say this, I can see the Packers receivers getting some separation in the Pittsburgh secondary that's given up over 200 pass yards per game, and 300 yards per game at Home. The Steelers defense have even given up 25.3 points per game. The Packers should take them out, but I don't believe the Packers can consistently produce offense against Pittsburgh. If they can protect Flynn, he can do some damage and of course there's Eddie Lacy and he's a huge key to this offense and how they move the ball. Good pass protection leads to open lanes, and time for Flynn to find his receivers.

- But can the Packers defense stop Pittsburgh's offense? The Steelers running game hasn't been very good all season long, and their offense gradually got to the point where they would've loved to be at earlier in the season. Their defense is ranked 11th, but they've allowed almost 24 points per game. Green Bay's pass rush needs to be on point as well. Big Ben's playmaking abilities speak for itself and his receivers will be able to get in the open field and he'll be able to deliver the ball against the Packers secondary. But with the running game for Pittsburgh being so stagnant, I wouldn't be surprised if Green Bay played the pass the entire game. Bell has been running well, but not to the point where their running game is a priority to stop. Their offensive line hasn't been that good, which will be a major problem heading into this one. 

- The Packers are fighting for their playoff lives, and even with San Diego, Baltimore, & Miami fighting for the #6 seed, Pittsburgh is still, but barely, in it. I'm go against the popular pick and go with Pittsburgh.

Prediction: Steelers defeat Packers

Oakland @ San Diego

- The Chargers are feeling good about themselves coming off a victory against Denver up at Mile High.  They control their own fate now with 2 Home games remaining and a chance to get into the postseason. They just need to win. But the Chargers have struggled against the Raiders recently. They were swept by Oakland in 2010, split the series the year after, swept Oakland last season, and have already lost to them already this season. The Chargers need to break this shaky spell of struggling against the Raiders. 

- The Raiders are going with McGloin again this Sunday. But what can win this game for Oakland is their defense. I can see River struggling throwing the ball if Oakland is consistent with their pass rush and that's a BIG IF. Like we've learned against San Diego, if there's no pass rush, Rivers will take apart the Oakland secondary and with the way Allen, Gates, and even Woodhead have played, they'll be a tough team to beat indeed. The Raiders will have to rely on getting pressure on the Chargers, putting Rivers on the turf and forcing him into bad throws. The Raiders offense isn't as explosive as it was when Pryor was back there. Oakland misses his dynamic playmaking ability, but McGloin has been a consistent pocket passer with a Top 10 running game backing him up. The Chargers haven't given up over 100 yards in their last 3 games. 

- I've got the Chargers in this one. The Raiders will be able to throw the ball on San Diego, but when it comes down to it, I believe San Diego's defense will step up and contain the Raiders running game, and the Chargers will take advantage of scoring opportunities. 

Prediction: Chargers defeat Raiders

Chicago @ Philadelphia

- Damn good match here with playoff implications. The Bears have a chance to make some leeway in the NFC North and with a Cowboys loss, the Eagles have a chance to put a stranglehold on the NFC East. What the Eagles have going for them is Lesean McCoy and his dynamic running ability, leading the league in rushing yards. The Bears have allowed 152.4 yards per game and the Eagles have the top ranked rushing attack in the NFL. Foles has 23 TD's to 2 INT's and the Eagles lead the league in the big play ball in plays that go 40 yards or more. The Bears pass defense is only ranked 11th. The Eagles, especially at Home, should be able to move the ball and run the ball well.

-But, I believe Chicago can take this one. They'll have trouble with Lesean McCoy without question, but I believe their defense will show up to play and keep Foles in check. I think the Bears will be able to get to Foles, pressure him and force him into inaccurate and poor throws. Tillman will have Desean, but the Foles/Cooper connection will be one to watch for. If the Bears can take that connection out of the game, combined with the pressure and get some fumbles, they can with this game. The Bears lead the league in forced fumbles and if that defensive line is consistent, Foles will struggle mightily. 

- And not to mention Cutler is back. He may not have been as accurate as McCown, but his arm, and ability to throw on the run is what makes the Bears offense explosive. It's hard enough that the Eagles have to deal with Cutler, but with Marshall out there and Alshon, who's been playing like a beast lately, the Eagles secondary will have their hands full. I don't think the Eagles defensive line will get consistent pressure and disrupt Cutler's timing. Also, the Bears have Matt Forte. Both teams can't stop the run so it'll be up to Forte and McCoy to pick up those tough, short yardage plays. 

- The Eagles have been playing well, producing consistent offense, running the ball extremely well, and Foles has been amazing. But despite the Bears stats, I think they're gonna show up, force turnovers, and contain this Eagles offense. I've got faith that the Bears defense will play well, Cutler will play well, and lead them to a win.

Prediction: Bears defeat Eagles

Atlanta @ San Francisco

- The last game at Candlestick Park. I really don't like that the Niners won't be playing there anymore. There's so much history in that building from the Montana/Rice/Young days. But nonetheless, MNF will air it and this is also a rematch of last year's NFC Championship game. You would think it would hold some importance this time around, but the Falcons have been awful this season. They have one of the worst rushing attacks in the NFL, and it'll be hard to see whether or not their defense can matchup with the Niners playmakers. Do they have an answer for Boldin, Crabtree, Davis, Gore, etc.? Not to mention, Kaepernick's playmaking abilities. The Falcons offense hasn't done a lot this season and they just struggle to move the ball and produce consistent offense. They're missing Julio, and White and Gonzalez have been battling injuries. But against a strong Niners defensive front and solid secondary, I don't think the Falcons have enough to knock off San Fran. Even if they did, the Niners won't dare lose the final game in Candlestick. 

Prediction: 49ers defeat Falcons

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By: Gerald "Showstopper" Prophete