Championship Sunday. One of the greatest Sundays in Sports. After this Sunday, we'll know who's going to be in the Super Bowl. We've got the two future Hall of Fame QB's going at it for the 4th time in the playoffs and we've not 2 young QB's backed by elite defenses playing in the most hostile environment. What more could ask for?
AFC Championship Game, 3 p.m., CBS
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos
You've probably heard a lot about things this week about how Tom Brady is 10-4 vs Peyton Manning, including 2-1 in the playoffs. You've probably heard how much better Tom Brady is than Peyton Manning and all this other noise. I've said this countless times, and even in the Brady vs Manning blog post I did earlier. Brady had the better teams around him, Peyton never had a consistent running game, or a defense that caused turnovers and made big stops when it had to be done. Brady has. His defenses were stacked and his running game was consistent. All this talk about how Brady does more with less, and how Peyton has consistently had star receivers. Did you ever think that Peyton made the talent he has around him. If he brings Denver to the Super Bowl, that'd be 2 different teams he brought to the Super Bowl which is a detriment to how good he really is. Don't take this as me bashing on Brady. Again, I've got Brady in my Top 5-10 QB's of all time, but he gets way overhyped and too much of the credit when he doesn't deserve it. That's my two cents, so let me get to the game.
The only concern the Patriots should have on offense is that they have no consistent deep threat. They run those constant out routes, slant patterns and they love to work the middle with Edleman and Amendola, but they have no legit deep threat. Dobson and Thompkins aren't consistent enough. Their running game will play a big part on how this game goes. If their running game does as well as they did against the Colts, it'll be hard for Denver to compete. But I think Denver will keep the Patriots running game in check. Blount is a physical running game, but you can't expect him to do what he did against the Colts again against a better rushing defense like Denver, and I don't expect him to. I think most of the game will be in Tom Brady's hands and how he works the middle and those out routes and throwing bullets for his receivers and moving the football on Denver's defense. Edleman has been their best receiver in efficient route running and yards after the catch. He'll need to have a big game for the Patriots to pull this one out.
Moving to Denver, part of what won the San Diego was their defense. A major weakness for Denver all season long was their pass rush and getting consistent pressure. Their defense showed up against San Diego, but New England's offensive line is a little better than that. I think it'll be harder for Denver to get consistent pressure on Brady. Both teams have come a long way since that Week 12 game where that Patriots offense got overwhelmed by Denver's defense leading to a quick 24-0 lead for the Broncos. Speaking of that game, Denver rushed for over 200 yards back in that game. I'm not saying Moreno will have 200 yards again, but Denver's running game will be key in moving the football, adding those yards up, and those short yardage plays. What should worry Denver on offense is dropped passes. Denver's receivers are good at getting open and running routes, but they can't hold onto the ball. Decker and Welker dropped TD passes in the San Diego game that could've put the game away long, long ago. Holding onto the ball will be crucial when it comes down to late game situations and coming up clutch.
What is going to be important is how Peyton performs against this defense. His pre snap reads have to be on point. There are times where just takes a glance over the defense and automatically knows what they're doing and how to beat it. His receivers need to hold onto the ball. If Denver will want to consistently move the football, when Peyton delivers the ball, these guys need to hold onto it. I think Denver will have trouble defending these plays over the middle, covering those slant patterns and out routes. Denver wins if that defense shows up, gets consistent pressure and forces turnovers. The Patriots win taking advantage of match ups on Denver's secondary and running the football effectively.
Brady may have a winning record against Manning, but he has a losing record against the Broncos (5-6) and 3-10 on the road against winning opponents since 2009. The last time Brady was in the AFC Championship on the ROAD, he played Peyton Manning and he LOST that game. Interesting enough, the winner of the Brady/Manning playoff games have gone on to win the Super Bowl. It's going to be great game. Can't wait to see it.
Prediction: Broncos defeat Patriots
NFC Championship Game, 6:30 p.m., FOX
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
For the 2nd year in a row, I've discounted the 49ers and picked against them throughout the playoffs and they have proven me wrong. That defense has been extraordinary during these playoffs. Containing Aaron Rodgers at Home, and shutting down Carolina. Carolina scored 10 points in the 1st half, never scored again. Kaepernick has played well, but the strength of this team comes from their defensive capabilities.
The Niners are a run heavy team, with Kaepernick running the read and Gore back there. The Niners, in these playoffs, have averaged 146.5 yards on the ground, but are 7th in passing yards. And this is why I've discounted the Niners; I just don't trust their passing game. Kaepernick is not a pure pocket passer. He's got a great arm, but he's inaccurate and can make some pretty wild throws. He thrives on running the ball and setting up the pass. Seattle's defense is out of this world and I don't see Kaepernick running wild out of the pocket for big chunks of yardage. He'll hard to stop on 3rd and short, but for the most part, this game will come down to whether or not he can make consistent throws from the pocket and with Boldin out there, he won't have to do much work. Boldin's gonna be the most physical receiver on the field Sunday. He can get physical with the Seahawks secondary and come down with the football and make plays. Crabtree will attract attention, but for the most part, I don't see him exploding for a big game. His presence alone will be troublesome, but I think Crabtree will be kept in check and Kaepernick and Boldin need to be on the same page like they were against Carolina. If they get it going like that, their passing attack will be hard to stop. But it's their defense is what will decide the game. They've done a great job getting pressure, containing the run, and not giving up the big play. They'll have to do all of this to stop Seattle. Follow Arizona's formula; consistent pressure on Wilson, jamming receivers, tight coverage, and denying separation and shut down that offense.
Speaking of defense, we all know how elite Seattle's defense is, especially on their Homefield. Look at how they kept the Saints offense contained throughout that game. They pretty much held them to 8 points, with that 7 coming in garbage time. The key to this game will be Marshawn Lynch running the football well and going off. Seattle has to win the turnover battle against San Francisco. Against New Orleans, they caused turnovers, got great field position and easy scoring opportunities. I think people are discounting Russell Wilson in this game. Difference between him and Kaepernick, is that Wilson is a better pocket passer. He can stand and deliver the football. He'll have to make plays with his feet, because that Niners pass rush will get to him and when they do, he'll have to extend the play with his feet and move the football. The Seattle secondary are physical, and hard-hitting machines and will have to contain the 49ers receivers. Another good thing Seattle did against the Saints was not give up the big play. If they can do that against a passing attack like the Saints, I'm sure they can do that against San Francisco.
Running the ball will be crucial for both teams. Lynch ran the ball well against New Orleans and will have to ball out against San Francisco's tough defensive line and linebacking core. I trust Russell Wilson a little more delivering the football and making accurate throws over Kaepernick. Kaepernick, however, is lucky to have a receiver that can go up and get the ball like Boldin. Both defenses will have to come strong as well. At Home, Seattle's defensive energy will be too much and the Niners are going to struggle to move the ball early on. I think Seattle's defense will get consistent pressure, get into good field position and get easy scoring opportunities. People really underestimate Seattle at Home ever since the Cardinals beat them. Kaepernick is 0-2 in Seattle, both games were blowouts. I could see this being a close game, but it wouldn't shock me if Seattle is up by double digits at the half. I picked Denver and Seattle to meet in the Super Bowl at the beginning of the season, that's what I'm staying with.
Prediction: Seahawks defeat 49ers
Arguably the 4 best teams in the playoffs made it to their respective Conference Championship Games. We're going to find out who the best team is, and which team came prepared with the better game plan. We're going to find out who's going to Super Bowl. I hope you're as excited as I am.
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By: Gerald "Showstopper" Prophete
